FXUS63 KIND 022315
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/00Z TAFS.

SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SDF WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST 
OVERNIGHT...WITH MULTIPLE IMPACTS ON THE TAFS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
SITES RANGE FROM LIFR AT BMG TO VFR AT LAF/HUF...AND THIS GENERAL 
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST RANGE TO CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAREST THE PATH OF 
THE SURFACE LOW...AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FURTHER 
NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED AT ALL BUT HUF. 
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POOR MOST SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING 
TOMORROW...BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BACK TO FROM THE NORTH TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 
THE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 20-24 KNOTS 
EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST.

MAIN VISIBILITY IMPACTS WILL BE SHOWERS...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 
UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.

A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...BUT 
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY AND LITTLE IMPACT ANTICIPATED...SO 
HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION OF -SN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 215 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009/

ENERGETIC UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF COAST STATES 
EXPECTED TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 
THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...UPPER ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY THE 
END OF THE WEEK. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN DETAILS. 
FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS MAINLY ON POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH 
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DATA BACKED UP WITH PRESSURE TRENDS...
SATELLITE...AND RADAR ALL SUGGEST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EJECT 
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO 
TAKE A TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF A LOUISVILLE-CINCINNATI LINE 
THIS EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG LIFT PROGGED WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE 
THIS EVENING...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ALL AREAS. LIFT WEAKENS 
QUITE A BIT AFTER 030600Z AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO...SO 
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. 
THICKNESSES SUGGEST AIR MASS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT 030800Z TO SUPPORT A MIX OR A CHANGEOVER TO 
SNOW...BUT BY THAT TIME MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT LIFT WILL BE 
GONE...SO IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...FLURRIES WOULD BE ABOUT IT.

IN THE LATER PERIODS...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S SYSTEM...SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY AND LINGER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF 
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THE SHEARING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 
ENERGY AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...THINK THERE WILL 
BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT DON/T SEE ANYTHING IN THE MODEL DATA TO 
SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE LATER 
PERIODS DRY.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH 
THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE LOWS BY FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE 
ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO COOL...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAS
AVIATION...NIELD