FXUS62 KMHX 100713
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
213 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE COAST AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE NEXT CPL HOURS. DEWPTS ARE PLUNGING INLAND HOWEVER TEMPS
SLOW TO DROP PER INIT WEAK CAA AND WELL MIXED LOW LVLS. TOUGH CALL
ON HIGH LOW TEMPS WILL BE BY 12Z AS WILL GREATLY IMPACT HIGHS. FOR
NOW THINK LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S INLAND AREAS TO MID 50S
CST. WITH CAA INCREASING DURING THE DAY TEMP RISE WILL BE SMALL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 50S CST.
MDLS ALL SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING NE ALONG CST TODAY IN DEEP SW
FLOW. MOST ALL MDLS KEEP MEASURABLE RAIN OFFSHORE SO ONLY HAVE
SMALL POPS OVER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WTRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...CONTINUED CAA TONIGHT AS 850 TEMPS DROP
INTO THE -2 TO -5 DEG CELSIUS RANGE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR COLD TEMPS
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPR 20S INLAND TO UPR 30S BEACHES. DESPITE
SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 45. FRI NIGHT
LOOKS COLD AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP WITH LOW DEWPTS. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 20S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOW TO MID 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN
ON SATURDAY PER MODEL TRENDS AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COASTAL FRONT WILL
MAKE INROADS BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND AREAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SHUD BE A DRY DAY AS
MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA EITHER SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MON. MODEL CONCENSUS HARD TO COME BY GOING INTO
MIDWEEK SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR DAYS 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CONTINUED STRONG
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS OF 50+KTS...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND A
COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE W FLOW WILL REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA...BUT UNDER
20KT FOR THE MOST PART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CLOUD DECK FOR TODAY...THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THE CAA
WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
REGION. BY FRI HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FOR THE WEEKEND HIGH PRES WILL LINGER TO OUR N...BUT A
WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN SAT NT/SUN. 

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WINDS REMAIN IN STRONG SCA AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT DUE TO STRONG BOUNDARY LVL WINDS. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF TO MINIMAL SCA 20-25KT OR LESS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO
WILL CONTINUE SCA TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUNDS. THE CAA SURGE WILL
SINK IN OVERNIGHT...INCREASE WINDS BACK TO SOLID SCA. THIS WILL
PICK SEAS BACK UP A FEW FEET...BUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ON FRI
THE WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA. FOR FRI NIGHT HAVE
BUMPED UP MODEL/GUIDANCE SPEEDS IN RESPONSE TO CAA OVER STILL
WARM WATERS. FEEL GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING MIXING POTENTIAL SO
KEPT 10-15KT OVER WATERS THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NE ON
SAT AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR N AND A WEAK COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO
OUR S. THIS FEATURE WILL SKIRT BY THE REGION SUN INCREASING WINDS
TO SCA. AT THIS TIME NOT ANTICIPATING SIG IMPACTS AS UPPER LVL
SUPPORT WEAK FOR NOTABLE CYCLOGENESIS...SO COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF COASTAL LOWS THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
UNEVENTFUL. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 230 AM THU...THE RECENT RAINFALL OF 1-2" ACROSS THE REGION
AND MORE NOTABLY UPSTREAM HAS ONCE AGAIN CAUSED RIVERS TO RISE.
THE NEUSE AND TAR RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO BANKFULL IN MANY
LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. KINSTON STAGE HAS CLIMBED
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR
FLOODING AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING TODAY. THE STAGE AT PGV IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE ROANOKE
RIVER REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND WITH KERR LAKE POOL
ELEVATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGH DAM DISCHARGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HRS WILL EXPECT THE RIVER TO REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     AMZ130-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ
HYDROLOGY...SJ