FXUS61 KOKX 281004
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
504 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A INTENSE STORM NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY...WITH A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VORT MAX PIVOTING AROUND DEEP UPPER LOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
TRIGGERED SHOWERS ACROSS CT AND EASTERN LI. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END BY 12Z AS THE VORT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CLEARING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. JUST SOME FAIR WX CU
EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
THE NYC METRO AREA...MANY COASTAL SECTIONS AND THE HIGHEST INLAND
ELEVATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED WINDS CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...THEREFORE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 4PM.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS MORNING AS THE STRONGEST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...925 MB WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOTION TO THE
REAR OF THE STORM PASS OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL
WIND ADVISORY EVENT WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 45 MPH.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50...EXCEPT IN THE NYC METRO AREA WHERE IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE STORM LIFTS FURTHER INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX...WINDS WILL ABATE. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
BOTTOM FROM FROM FALLING OUT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE WATER.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUN WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY. WEST WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH FROPA ON MON...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SUN AND MON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOTH
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS. LEANED TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE AND
ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD AS GFS CONTINUES TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE.
SOME COLDER AIR DOES MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THRU THU AS LOW PRES MOVES
UP THE EAST COAST. DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE LIQUID...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FCST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG W-NW FLOW...RANGING
FROM 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR
COASTAL TERMINALS...RANGING FROM 25-30 KT WITH 35-40 KT GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH 15-20 KT WITH 25
KT GUSTS BY THIS EVENING.
WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 270-290 DEGREES.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIND FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...VFR.
MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
TUE-WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN GALE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. IN FACT...A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. DO NOT FEEL THEY WILL BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT STORM WARNINGS.
THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
SEAS REMAINS RATHER ROUGH FOR QUITE SOMETIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...AND EASTERN LI SOUND DUE TO WESTERLY FETCH.
FOLLOWED WAVE WATCH III CLOSELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. BASIN AVG QPF WITH THE FRONT ON MON IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEGATIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES ALREADY 1 TO 2 FT BELOW. THE STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEGATIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS OF WESTERN LI...NY HARBOR...AND WESTERN LI SOUND TO LOW WATER
BENCHMARKS. A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
DURING THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE TODAY. NOT CONFIDENT FOR TONIGHT/S LOW
TIDE...SO NO PLANS TO EXTEND IT ATTM AS WINDS LIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002>006-011.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ338-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ335.
&&
$$
