FXUS62 KMLB 260311
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1009 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...SURFACE WINDS SHOW OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
ALIGNED ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS LOCATED ACROSS 
NORTH FLORIDA AND IS DEPICTED BY CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT. NEXRAD 
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT SHOULD BE LAST BATCH OF LIGHT RAINFALL 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL PENINSULA MOVING EASTWARD. 

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER NORTH FLORIDA WHERE SKIES HAVE 
CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY THU MORNING IF 
SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY ALONG I-4 
AND NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO COVERAGE AND HOW DENSE.

WILL SEND UPDATE TO ZONES TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING AND LOWER 
CHANCES TO JUST SCHC FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
OVERNIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...(PREVIOUS)...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE WELL NORTH 
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT 
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO 10 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT THE 
SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS. COLD AIR 
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OFFSET ANY SURFACE HEATING BROUGHT 
BY CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S AS FAR SOUTH 
AS INDIAN RIVER...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT TO NEAR 80 OVER THE FAR 
SOUTH. 

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING PREVAILING VFR...HOWEVER...SOME 
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH -RA ACROSS THE AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. 
SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY BR POSSIBLE IF SKIES ABLE TO 
CLEAR OUT ANY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE 
LOW ON LIKELIHOOD ON EXTENT OF THIS.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WELL 
OFFSHORE AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION SLIDES DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR 
THE TWO OFFSHORE NORTH LEGS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 4-6 FT 
HERE WHILE BEING 3-4 FT CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR 
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER 
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD 
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER