FXUS61 KOKX 220545
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1245 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AS AREA SITS BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE 
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COMPLEX LOW WILL APPROACH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WINTRY MIX TO INLAND
SECTIONS AND MAINLY RAIN TO COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND HIGH 
PRESSURE. FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. LOWER 
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MIXED...PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING 
CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARD MOS NUMBERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW/CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW CLIMO.
EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPS...LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH...SO 
EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. CONTINUED COLD 
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER AS AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM 
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SLOWING DOWN THE 
SYSTEM AND THINKING AT THIS POINT THAT CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL BE 
DRY...WITH POPS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON 
CHRISTMAS. 

THE LATER START TIME WILL BE GOOD...GIVING TEMPERATURES AT THE 
SURFACE A CHANCE TO WARM UP A BIT DURING THE DAY...AS OPPOSED TO THE 
PRECIP STARTING DURING THE COLDER OVERNIGHT. 

FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH AND 
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY 
NIGHT. 

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WARM 
ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. 

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY...POSSIBLY AS A 
WINTRY MIX...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH WINDS 290-320 DEGREES AND SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 10-15KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 20-25KT RANGE.

ANY SLUSH OR WATER ON TAXIWAYS WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. 
FRI...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE VIA MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW...WITH
FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ALL RAIN FROM SE TO NW
IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NIGHT-SAT ...SUB-VFR LIKELY IN RAIN. GUSTY SE-S WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS INCREASED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND
40 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WARNING. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TYPE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA WATERS. CONFIDENCE LOW THOUGH FOR WEDNESDAY...SO WILL
ONLY EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ATTM.

WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE 
NORTH.

FOLLOWED WAVE WATCH III CLOSELY...BUT INCREASED SEAS 
SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN WATERS AS VALUES APPEAR TOO LOW GIVEN 
EXPECTED WINDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WATERS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS 
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION 
BEHIND THE LOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT OCCURRING EACH AFTERNOON. 
SNOW MELT THEN SHUTS OFF AT NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THIS WEEK. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD FALL AS A WINTRY MIX...IS
LIKELY. RAIN IS FAVORED AT THE COAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...98
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...PW