FXUS64 KTSA 011132
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM 
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AREAS OF RAIN COULD
SPREAD INTO THE MLC/FSM AREAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 5 KFT OR HIGHER IN THESE AREAS. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR EASTERN 
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TODAY 
WILL BE THE LAST DAY DURING THIS FORECAST 
PERIOD WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMS. 

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SWING ACROSS TEXAS AND 
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE 
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST 
ARKANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP OF THE SEASON
WITH HARD FREEZES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH THE 
REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A MORE 
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 
A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS 
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE 
REGION BEFORE THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MID-LEVEL LOW CAN EXIT THE AREA. LITTLE OR 
NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THIS 
TIME. 

AFTER THE MID-LEVEL LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...A
COLD AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS HIGH 
PRESSURE PREVAILS LATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO 
MONDAY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT 
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY 
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12