FXUS61 KRLX 251913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA FOR 
THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS 
LIMITED. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. MET MOS LOOKS 
TOO WARM BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO CLOSER TO MAV 
MOS. WILL REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DRY SLOT...AS NOT 
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE 
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE MOVES IN FROM THE 
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING AN STRONG UPPER LOW EAST 
ACROSS THE REGION THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...APPEARS A 
FEW REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL SLIDE EAST ON THANKSGIVING.

AS A RESULT...STRONG FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN 
PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ON THANKSGIVING.  THE MAIN FORCING WITH 
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE ON THANKSGIVING.

THE COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO 
FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN...BRINGING THE 
PRECIPITATION TO AN END ACROSS THE LOWLANDS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
THEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY.   

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY IDEAL SITUATION FOR HEAVY UPSLOPE 
SNOW...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND H8 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 5 TO MINUS 7 
DEGREES.  HOWEVER...APPEARS THE WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE 
PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL LIMIT SOME OF THE 
POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS.

STILL EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHEST 
ELEVATIONS...WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET...WITH 
LESSOR AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. 

WITH THE CHANGE IN OUR SNOW CRITERIA FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES 
AS WELL AS WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS...SEE NO TIME PERIOD 
WHEN THE COUNTY AVERAGE CRITERIA WILL BE MET.       

PREVIOUS TEMP FORECASTS FOR THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT APPEAR 
REASONABLE AND WILL BE USED...WITH SOME TWEAKS TO REFLECT LATEST 
GUIDANCE.  LATEST GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS A 
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NUMBERS AND WILL TWEAK NUMBERS UP TO 
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND A 
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO AT LEAST NORMAL IF NOT A BIT ABOVE 
NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY.  

WHILE MODELS ADVERTISE A HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH 
AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE 
EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE EURO MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER 
LOW/SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES 
EAST...MAKING IT LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH THEN AFFECTS OUR AREA 
MAINLY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND GEM 
MAINTAIN AN OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WHICH DRIVES A 
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY...AFFECTING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY. HPC GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH OUR 
FORECAST REFLECTS. IN ANY CASE...THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE WIDE 
OPEN AND ALLOW A QUITE MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS 
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD THEN BE LATER MONDAY INTO 
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA CURRENTLY...WITH MAINLY A DEW 
POINT DROP.  CIGS HAVE RISEN TO VFR.  AS A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN 
TONIGHT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AGAIN...CIGS WILL LOWER BACK 
TOWARDS MVFR BY MORNING.  THEY WILL THEN HOVER AROUND THE 3000 FOOT 
BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SHOULD SEE SOME SHRA AFTER 
12Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...BUT DO NOT SEE 
ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE.

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW 
SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CL/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...CL