FXUS65 KPIH 012310 RRA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
410 PM MST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. QUICK UPDATE THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR BAND OF SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE ERN SNAKE PLAIN AND 
HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BUT DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. BIG
STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND LOW 30S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR BELOW FREEZING. THE SHORT TERM LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTY THROUGH 
EXTENDED REMAINS BUT SOME ISSUES BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. TREND 
IS FOR A REGIME CHANGE FROM MILD DAYTIME CONDITIONS UNDER A RIDGE 
WITH NIGHTTIME COLD AIR INVERSIONS TO A TROUGH DOMINATED PATTERN. 
FIRST SYSTEMS DROPS OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS 
IDAHO. CONTINENTAL SOURCE INDICATES MORE COLD THAN SNOW BUT LIGHT 
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEYOND SUNDAY MODELS 
DIFFER ON WHERE THE RESULTING LOW GOES. HAVE LEFT POPS ALONE BUT 
TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING 
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HASNT CAUGHT 
UP YET AND THUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES NOW COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL 
CREATE A NEW WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTING THE PATTERN CHANGE 
FOR NEXT WEEK. DMH 

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS FIELD ENTRENCHED IN SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH LITTLE SIGNS OF BREAKING EVEN WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN 
ALONG DIVIDE. HAVE LEFT MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS 
SECTIONS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. 
THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES UNDER SEEDER/FEEDER 
MECHANISM AS WAVE SLIPS OVER NORTHEAST CORNER OF FCST AREA THIS 
EVENING. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY BUT 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND OTHER THAN STRATUS SHOULD BE LITTLE IMPACT TO 
AVIATION CONCERNS. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$