FXUS64 KLZK 110616 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1210 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL 
INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE 
EAST. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THICKEN...BUT THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN 
EAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 6 
AND 10 KNOTS. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL KEEP 
SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW CLOUDS WILL 
RETURN TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEENS IN THE NORTH TO 
MID 20S IN THE SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY BUT WILL 
STILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY. 

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY 
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL RETURN TO 
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD NORTH. WITH DRY AIR IN 
PLACE...ENOUGH COOLING MAY OCCUR TO PRODUCE LIGHT SLEET WHICH WOULD 
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF 
THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. 
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY 
NIGHT WILL BE RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHORT WAVE 
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR 
ANOTHER DRY DAY. 

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
W/SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYS ACRS THE REGION AT 
THE START OF THE PD. MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP 
ASSOCD WITH THIS SYS WL AFFECT MAINLY SERN AR...WITH MUCH LIGHTER 
AMOUNTS FURTHER NWD. AN UPR LVL TROF...DROPPING SEWD FM THE PLAINS...
WL PASS ACRS THE MID SOUTH ON TUE AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER 
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FA. LATEST GFS SOLUTION INDCS COLDER AIRMASS 
BLDG FURTHER SWD BY MIDWEEK COMPARED TO THE WARMER ECMWF. OPTED TO 
USE A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS FOR TEMPS WHICH RESULTS IN GOOD 
CONSISTENCY THRU THE PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$