FXUS64 KBMX 282141
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
341 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. IN ADDITION...HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
HANG AROUND...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 4 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL COOL TO AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH PLACES
IN THE NORTH AND TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO OUR WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...ENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...AND GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITIES AND THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE LOW. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S.
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE FRONT TO THE GULF COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. A
QUICK BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 60.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
WILL SPARK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE EU IS SLOWER IN EJECTING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
NORTHEASTWARD...AND BRINGS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SFC LOW NORTHWARD OVER
MS. ALTHOUGH THE OPER GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER /STRONGER THAN MOST
GFS ENS MEMBERS/ SFC LOW QUICKER...THE LATEST RUN HAS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THE LOW WESTWARD. WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE EU AND ENS
MEMBERS AND INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ADD IN THUNDER
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST. CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL BE DEPENDENT OF THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY...AND FINALLY NORTHERLY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID 50S IN
THE SOUTH. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
14
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 37 63 50 54 35 / 0 10 40 60 10
ANNISTON 41 65 50 56 36 / 0 10 20 60 10
BIRMINGHAM 41 65 54 57 36 / 0 10 40 60 10
TUSCALOOSA 41 65 54 57 36 / 0 10 50 60 10
CALERA 38 64 53 58 38 / 0 10 20 60 10
AUBURN 39 66 50 60 40 / 0 10 10 60 20
MONTGOMERY 39 68 53 66 41 / 0 10 10 60 20
TROY 39 69 50 67 40 / 0 10 10 50 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
