FXUS61 KPBZ 031104
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY COLDER AIR.
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THIN LINE OF HEAVY RAIN...ISO TRW AND STRONG WINDS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONG UL WAVE. MAIN FRONT
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO PASS TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. WILL KEEP IN STRONG WIND GUSTS
THIS MORNING AS MODELS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT PRESS RISES BEHIND
BOUNDARY AND SFC PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL EXIT THE AREA BY DAWN..BUT WILL LEAVE IN CHC POPS TODAY WITH
ANOTHER UL WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND STRONG CAA THROUGH THE AFT
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO
FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG I-80 AND ACROSS THE RIDGES. STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MODELS ARE TRYING TO THROW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES FOR SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES FOR ALL SNOW AS THICKNESS WOULD SUPPORT. AS OF NOW...
HIGHEST QPF WILL STAY EAST SO NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM
MAV MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
BROAD BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROJECTED OVER CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE RAPIDLY MOVING
DISTURBANCES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BEST
OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH DUE TO THE COLD FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN PA THIS MORNING...EXITING
TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED TO SCATTERED
SHWRS...THUS WILL KEEP PREVAILING WORDING OUT OF THE TERMINALS.
W/SW WINDS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
WINDS ALOFT BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THUS...WILL REMOVE LLWS FOR MOST
TERMINALS...RETAINING LLWS FOR DUJ/LBE/MGW TIL 14Z. AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS LOOSEN LATER TODAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-12KT THIS
AFTN. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION WORKS IN...WITH
SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PIT BY OVERNIGHT TNGT.
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW END VFR TO
MVFR RANGE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO CLIP WV/MD SATURDAY FOR AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS WITH
LOW END VFR CLOUDS PERSISTING FURTHER NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOR DRY/MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO CROSS MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ016-023-030-
032.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
