FXUS64 KMEG 260052 AAB
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
652 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME EDITS TO THE GOING GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT INTO THE
MID-UPPER 20S. THEY SHOULDN/T FALL TOO MUCH BELOW THAT GIVEN THE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER QUITE A
BIT AS MOST OF THE STRATOCU FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING
LOW OVER IOWA SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM
WOBBLES SOUTHWARD A BIT SATURDAY EVENING...DID INCREASE CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH TO BLEND A BIT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY IN THE 30S. SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST IOWA
WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY AND CHILLY OVER THE
REGION. THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THERE MAY BE
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMING
ALL RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE
MORE RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND COOL
WEATHER FOR NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A
FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS EXPECTED SUNDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
REMAINS WINDS.
LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 10KTS EXPECTED AT KTUP. MOST STATIONS
WILL LOSE GUST POTENTIAL BY 01Z OR 02Z...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
GUSTS WILL REAPPEAR IN THE HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE... LIKELY
STRONGEST AT KJBR. OVERALL... EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WIND DIRECTION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT VEERING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 29 45 26 42 / 0 10 10 10
MKL 26 43 25 39 / 0 10 10 10
JBR 26 41 25 38 / 0 10 10 10
TUP 27 47 26 45 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
