FXUS64 KLZK 011127
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
527 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING WTIH A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
OVERRIDE THE FRONT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH BECOMING MVFR TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR AR EARLY THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN
LGT WINDS AND COLD TEMPS. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED NWD INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT HAS NOT AFFECTED TEMPS MUCH. MOST LOCATIONS
WERE IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
THE HIGH WL SHIFT EWD LATER TODAY...WITH LIFT E/SELY WINDS EXPECTED
BY AFTN. HIGH CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS FM THE S...RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. MEANWHILE...AN UPR LVL LOW WL CONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS
NRN MX AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN TX LATE TODAY.
THE UPR STORM SYS WL CONT MOVG EWD TNGT EVENTUALLY TURN NEWD TOWARD
THE FA LATE TNGT AND WED. MOISTURE WL SURGE NWD INTO THE MID SOUTH
TNGT AND WED AS THE UPR LOW APCHS AND A SFC LOW DVLPS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. CURRENT FCST HAS RAIN OVERSPREADING THE STATE FM THE S TNGT...
WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE S.
THE GFS CONTS TO TAKE THE UPR SYS JUST TO THE S OF AR THRU WED NGT...
KEEPING THE BEST PRECIP CHCS OVR THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE
OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF WHICH TAKE THE UPR SYS
NEWD ACRS CNTRL/SERN AR. NEXT CONCERN RMNS HOW LONG WL PRECIP LINGER
IN THE W SIDE OF THE UPR LOW AS COLDER AIR BLDS INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT TO SEE A MIXTURE OF RN/SN OVR NWRN AR LATE WED AFTN AND EARLY
WED EVENING...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP WL QUICKLY END
FM THE W LATER WED EVENING.
HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
MUCH COLDER CONDS EXPECTED. HIGHS THU AND FRI ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S OVR MOST AREAS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WL FALL
INTO THE 20S. COLDER CONDS WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT LATE
SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO ARKANSAS MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS SATURDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST. WILL BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND SPREAD IT NORTH MONDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 52 40 44 31 / 0 30 90 20
CAMDEN AR 54 42 46 33 / 10 80 90 20
HARRISON AR 54 38 41 27 / 0 20 70 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 53 41 45 32 / 0 70 90 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 51 41 45 32 / 0 60 90 20
MONTICELLO AR 52 42 46 35 / 10 80 90 20
MOUNT IDA AR 53 41 44 30 / 10 70 80 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 54 39 42 28 / 0 20 70 20
NEWPORT AR 52 41 44 32 / 0 40 90 20
PINE BLUFF AR 52 41 45 34 / 10 70 90 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 53 40 44 29 / 0 50 80 20
SEARCY AR 52 41 44 31 / 0 50 90 20
STUTTGART AR 51 41 45 33 / 0 70 90 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
