FXUS61 KOKX 301142
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
642 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST...AND PASS TO THE 
WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH REGARD TO MODEL HANDLING OF NEXT TROUGH AND COLD 
FRONT. DO EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE AS THE MORNING 
PROGRESSES AS H3 HPA JET STRENGTHENS.

LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 
FROM WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH RAINFALL ERN ZONES THIS MORNING...THEN 
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...SHOWERS MAINLY 
OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING 
FOR ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF QPF ON AVERAGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW WHAT WAS OBSERVED 
YESTERDAY. MOS BLEND FOLLOWED WHICH IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS 
IN DATABASE ANYWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND 
TUESDAY. CLEARING OCCURS THIS EVENING AS THE SHOWERS DEPART THE 
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE 
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME 20S 
INTERIOR.

UPPER LEVEL VORT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ON BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING 
UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. COULD 
SEE A SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POP UP TUESDAY. PROFILES 
SHOW PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW...BUT WILL LET BOUNDARY LAYER 
DICTATE PTYPE. ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ANYWAY...PREDOMINATELY 
INTERIOR. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH 
DEPARTS AND RIDGE BUILDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID 
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...AND WE SHOULD OBSERVE INCREASING AMOUNTS 
OF HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW STATES...WILL IMPACT THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
GETS CAUGHT UP IN FAST NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
GGEM/SREF/NAM/GFS/GEFS AND EC ALL FAVOR INLAND TRACK TO THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE. WILL DISCARD NAM SOLUTION AS
IT LAGS BEHIND ALL OTHER MODELS SOLUTIONS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. NAM SRN STREAM TROUGH AND SFC LOW FURTHER WEST AND SLOWER
THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. GFS COULD BE A TAD FAST WITH THE LOW
THAT MOVES OUT OF GULF AND TRAVERSES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. DO
EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS
CUTS OFF RAIN QUICKLY THURSDAY...BUT WILL SIDE WITH GEFS/SREF AND
SLOW THIS DOWN A TAD.

THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE 
TO HEAVY RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO 
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING ON THURSDAY (FULL 
MOON)...BUT MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS STRONG 
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SE SWELL IMPACT THESE SOUTH FACING LOCALES.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN 
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY...COLDER 
SATURDAY...THEN TEMPS MODERATE AGAIN SUNDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES APPROACHING ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH 
MON...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS AREA TERMINALS MON AFTERNOON. THE 
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE TERMINALS MON EVENING.

VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT LOWERING CIGS OVERALL. 
CIGS VARY VFR TO MVFR IN -SHRA...BUT BRIEF PDS OF HIGH END IFR PSBL 
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS 
TIME. 

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR WILL BE AROUND 310
DEGREES STARTING AT 22-23Z.

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL. MAY SEE OCNL 
S-SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS THRU 22Z.

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     30/10Z 23008KT    
     30/11Z 23008KT    
     30/12Z 23008KT    
     30/13Z 23008KT    
     30/14Z 24009KT    
     30/15Z 25009KT    
     30/16Z 26010KT    
     30/17Z 27010KT    
     30/18Z 28010KT    
     30/19Z 28010KT    
     30/20Z 29010KT    
     30/21Z 30010G15KT 

KJFK...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL. A FEW S-SW 
GUSTS TO 20 KT PSBL THRU 20Z.

KLGA...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.

KTEB...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.

KHPN...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.

KSWF...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.

KISP...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.

KBDR...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL

KGON...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 
MON NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. 
TUE...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. 
TUE NIGHT...VFR. 
WED- THU...IFR POSSIBLE WITH STRONG S-SE WINDS/PSBL WITHWS ISSUES. 
THU NIGHT-FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WITH GUSTY W-NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ALREADY REACHING SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 
FOLLOW SUIT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 
PRETTY STRONG CAA JUST BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTN...SO GUSTS UP TO 
25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN LI 
SOUND/BAYS. REMAINING WATERS SHOULD FALL SHORT. HAVE KEPT HEADLINES 
AS IS.  

GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT TONIGHT AND THERE COULD BE GUSTS REACHING 25 
KT AT TIMES. WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE 
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE 
FREQUENT GUSTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE RIGHT AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE 
NIGHT AS WELL SO SCA WILL BE EXTENDED HERE.

CONDS THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT AS STRONG 
LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. GALES ARE A 
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY INTO THU...BUT STILL TO EARLY FOR A GALE WATCH. 
WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE IN HWO.

ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE OCEAN SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON 
THU...BUT WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
ABOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST 
ACROSS THE AREA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 
1/4 INCH...THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON WILL KEEP ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HIGH OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED 
WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO THE WEST COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL 
FLOODING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THU 
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF 
HIGH TIDE...BUT DUE TO THE FAIRLY QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE 
STORM...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND DECREASE BY THE EVENING HIGH 
TIDE CYCLE.  DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED TO REACH MINOR 
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS IN THE MORNING...2 TO 2 1/2 IN THE EVENING.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM...HENCE STRONGER WINDS AND 
LARGER DEPARTURES IN THE STORM SURGE GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE MORE OF AN 
EC/SREF ROUTE FOR NOW SO NOT TAKING THE GUIDANCE VERBATIM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC/PW
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...AL
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AL