FXUS65 KABQ 151840
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2009

.UPDATE...
LAST MINUTE MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE JUST A FEW FIRST PERIOD
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS AND TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO FEATURE LESS
CLOUDINESS. EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2009...
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT HAS FINALLY EMERGED FROM A STORMY PATTERN.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
NEAR THE WEST TEXAS BORDER. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END AROUND
SUNRISE. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON A BIT LONGER UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES INTO TEXAS. SUBSIDENCE WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. IT
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MILDER ACROSS MOST LOCALES EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS FILTERED IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT CLAYTON WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
AND WILL BE DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG THIS AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO EXPECT
THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS TO MIX OUT. 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...KEEPING THE WEATHER
PATTERN DRY AND MILD INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE ECMWF RUN BACKED
OFF ON ITS PRIOR SOLUTION OF A RATHER BULLISH TROUGH PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS BRINGING
A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE STATE BUT SHUNTING THE BULK OF THIS
SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST WITH ONLY MINOR EFFECTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT DID
LOWER EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AS AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. 

UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATING A PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE STORMY CONDITIONS
APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RATHER STRONG TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS TO INVADE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BEARS WATCHING.

KW

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SO LOOK FOR IMPROVING 
CONDITIONS THERE. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN 
AREAS HAVE ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING VIA STRONG RADIATIONAL 
COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE. THE BIG CHALLENGE WAS PREDICTING WHICH 
TERMINAL SITE BETWEEN FMN AND GUP WOULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AT 
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION...GUP CIG DROPPING LIKE A ROCK AND 
EXPECT SOME SORT OF BR OR FG TO FOLLOW. STILL THINKING THAT FMN WILL 
ALSO SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER AS WELL. WILL 
REFLECT THAT IN THE UPCOMING TERMINAL FORECAST UNLESS SOMETHING 
CHANGES DRASTICALLY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS 
TO IMPROVE BOTH SITES BY LATE MORNING. TCC IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF 
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING BUT WOULD BE SHORTER IN 
DURATION AND NOT BE AS BAD AS CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST.  

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT A LOT OF FORECAST CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE CURRENT PACKAGE. 
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. MODELS BECOMING A 
LITTLE MORE INLINE WITH THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD. 

VENTILATION REMAINS THE BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. 
BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS...CONDITIONS DONT IMPROVE MUCH 
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT VENTILATION WILL BE THE BEST 
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN IMPROVE SOME 
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY. EXPECT A SIMILAR RESULT FOR 
FRIDAY FAVORING THE HIGHER RIDGES ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND 
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. OVERALL THOUGH...SURFACE WIND FLOW WONT BE 
TOO STRONG THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE 
INCREASE IN WINDS PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN INITIAL WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE ATTACHED TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY. A FOLLOW 
UP STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY. THE COOLER PUSH ON FRIDAY SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE 
3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND RAISE DAYTIME HUMIDITY READINGS 10 
TO 25 PCT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.  

THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL PUSH APPEARS TO BE THE DEEPEST ACROSS 
THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS SO THERE IS SOME 
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT 
DOESNT LOOK TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. THE LONG RANGE 
MODEL...ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN MORE BULLISH FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOW 
TRENDING CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING EVER SO 
SLOWLY FOR A DRIER SCENARIO DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS MEANS THAT THE NEXT 
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREA QUICKER AND THUS 
ALLOW AN OVERALL TREND IN RISING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 
CAVEAT TO THAT WOULD BE WITHIN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND CANYONS FOUND 
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. VENTILATION DURING THIS PERIOD 
WOULD MOST LIKELY LOWER DUE TO A WELL ESTABLISHED INVERSION. THIS IN 
TURN...WOULD KEEP SOME OF THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THEY 
WOULD OTHERWISE BE. SOME WIND WOULD BE FOUND TO THE LEE OF THE 
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE 
SURFACE WOULD KEEP WINDS MUTED. 

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME 
DISTINCT DIFFERENCES ON HOW THAT BREAK DOWN OCCURS. THUS THE LONGER 
RANGE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. WITH THAT BEING SAID...INCREASES IN 
WIND AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD OCCUR WITH THAT BREAK 
DOWN. 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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