FXUS64 KSHV 012115
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NE TX AND SE OK BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW
JUST OFF TX COASTLINE...SPREADING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOWARDS
CENTRAL LA. ALTHOUGH RAIN IN CWA A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE...EXPECT
HIGH COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. CLOSED LOW
NORTH OF BIG BEND TRACK TO NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW PRODUCING SATURATION. CURRENT RAINFALL RATES SEEN OVER
CENTRAL TX OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR
PSBL...RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BTWN ONE AND TWO
INCHES THROUGH WED MORNING. COLDER AIR WED AFTN SHOULD MISS THE
WRAPAROUND MSTR OVER SW AR/SE OK. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO
AREA WITH GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE...BUT WITH PLENTY OF COLD
AIR AND A FAVORABLE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE FOR SNOW. FOR
NOW...PLACE 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MIX...TRANSITIONING
TO LIGHT SNOW...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX...ESPECIALLY THE EAST TX
LAKES AREA...EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LA. WITH ONSET OF PCPN DURING
DAY...SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...EVAP COOLING PROCESSES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PURE SNOW...THUS STARTED GRIDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
THIS REINFORCING BUT WEAKER COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY SHOULD ENSURE
THAT TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA RADARS SHOW -RA CONTINUING TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES SPINNING INTO TX.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DETERIORATING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE ON TAP
BY THIS EVENING...AS LOWER CIGS AND RA GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD AREA
TERMINALS. FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD DROP INTO IFR TERRITORY BETWEEN
02/0800-1200 UTC...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY END FROM W-E ACROSS AREA TERMINALS AFTER 02/1800 UTC AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. /D. BUTTS/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 44 46 33 50 34 / 80 60 10 0 10
MLU 45 47 35 50 33 / 80 80 20 0 10
DEQ 40 41 29 47 31 / 80 80 20 0 10
TXK 43 43 32 48 32 / 80 80 10 0 10
ELD 44 46 32 49 32 / 80 80 20 0 10
TYR 43 45 32 49 34 / 90 50 10 0 10
GGG 44 45 33 50 34 / 80 50 10 0 10
LFK 44 47 35 53 35 / 90 40 10 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
