FXUS64 KSHV 300322
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
922 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH THE ARKLATEX THIS 
EVENING...PROVIDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD 
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR A MAGNOLIA 
AR...SHREVEPORT LA...JACKSONVILLE TX LINE. ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY 
WAS OBSERVED IN NE TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS A THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE NEAR THE NEW BOSTON AREA AND FLASH FLOODING IN 
THE TEXARKANA AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA WELL BEFORE 12Z...AS
CURRENT ANALYSIS IS JUST A TAD QUICKER THAN NAM AND GFS. SPOTTY
AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER FROPA...SO POPS WILL LINGER TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WE AREA DECREASING
W/ FROPA.

WILL UPDATE POPS IN FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS...BUT 
TEMPS AND WINDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT BY 930 PM.

ELEVEN

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF KELD THROUGH JUST W OF KSHV TO 
ABOUT 40N OF KOCH AS OF 03Z THIS SUNDAY EVENING.  EXPECT MVFR OR 
EVEN SCTD IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT 
THROUGHOUT MONDAY WITH A MOIST COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND 
FRONT.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR 
BEHIND THE FRONT.  VIII.

&&

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  60  42  56  47 /  90  20  10  50  70 
MLU  53  60  42  56  49 /  90  30  10  50  70 
DEQ  44  54  37  57  44 /  30  10   0  30  60 
TXK  46  56  39  57  45 /  50  10   0  30  60 
ELD  50  58  38  57  46 /  90  20   0  30  60 
TYR  47  55  42  55  46 /  50  10  10  60  70 
GGG  49  58  42  55  46 /  50  10  10  60  70 
LFK  57  61  44  52  48 /  80  40  30  60  70 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/08