FXUS61 KGYX 120111
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
811 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINAS LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW AS IT INTENSIFIES IN
THE MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STALLS IN THE MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST. AFTER
REVIEWING GRIDS...THERE WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES/MODIFICATIONS.
-SHSN CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WIND DOWN LATE
TONIGHT.
UP TO 8 INCHES LAST NIGHT...JUST WEST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY FROM
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURRED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH.
SEE PREV DISC BELOW...
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WILL BE STARTING WITH LIKELY POPS IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST CHANCE FOR LATE.
ELSEWHERE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THINK ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH. DUE TO CLOUDS
AND WINDS HAVE AGAIN GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING FOR MINS MUCH COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL
BE LETTING WIND ADVISORY RUN IT'S COURSE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...EXPIRING AT 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ON SATURDAY BUT EXPECT MUCH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THE DAY BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKE TODAY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN GONE
WITH COOLER NAM TEMPS FOR HIGHS WITH READINGS NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND REMAINING IN THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.
WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW EASES UP SATURDAY NGT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. ANY -SHSN
ACTIVITY OVER THE MT ZONES DIMINISHES AS UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS WITH
DIMINISHING AND BACKING WINDS. HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST FOR SUNDAY
AS UPR LVL TROF AND WEAK SFC FNT MOVE E BRINGING LGT PRCP LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NGT. WARMER AIR MOVES IN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO
-SHSN CHANGES OVER TO -SHRA OR MIX FROM S TO N WITH THE MT ZONES
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS TO STAY ALL SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LGT...
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FA.
A SFC LOW SPINS UP TO OUR S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT TRACKS
TOO FAR S TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WX. AS THIS SYSTEM GOES BY
LATE SUNDAY NGT PRCP ENDS OR LETS UP AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND SOME
COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
NOT A STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...IN FACT H8
TEMPS BARELY DROP MUCH AND STAY WRM UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THRU TUESDAY EVENING AS AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW MOVES DOWN THE
ST LAWRENCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING -SHRA TO THE REGION WITH SOME
MIX OF SN AND RA PSBL...MAINLY OVER MORE NRN AREAS...MONDAY NGT THRU
LATE TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NGT ON STRONG AND
GUSTY NW WINDS AS LOW DEEPENS N OF MAINE. -SHSN PSBL...ESPECIALLY IN
UPSLOPE REGIONS. COLD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH MT -SHSN. LOW PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THEN TRACKS
TO THE NE ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHC OF SN TO THE REGION.
GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY THEN USED GMOS FOR REST OF LONG TERM
FCST WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SFC FNT BRINGS
-SHRASN TO THE REGION WITH MVFR TO PSBL IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
THRU MOST OF SUNDAY NGT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS -SHRA AND
PSBL MIX -SHRASN WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY NGT AND
TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NW FLOW ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...GALES DROP TO SCA
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY SATURDAY NGT WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING
TO LET UP BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER SATURDAY NGT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS IN. SW FLOW INCREASES AND SEAS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AHEAD OF
SFC TROF LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NGT. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD TO
SCA LEVELS AGAIN AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NGT. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THIS
FNT LATE TUESDAY NGT AND CONT THRU WEDNESDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
PSBL.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
