FXUS61 KBGM 270813
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND 
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AS A STORM SYSTEM HEADS UP THE EAST COAST. BY 
AFTERNOON...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
SATURDAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE 
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH EXPECTED 
AT TIMES. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER 
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOPRES APPROX 200 MILES EAST OF THE NY BIGHT AND HEADING NORTH 
AT THE PRESENT TIME. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE ALMOST DUE NORTH 
OF THE CENTER AND ALL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE NO A GENERAL NORTHWARD 
TRACK TODAY...LANDING SOMEWHERE NR DOWNEAST MAINE THIS EVNG. 

UL SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THRU CNTRL NY STATE EARLY THIS MRNG 
WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AHD OF IT.  ALL SITES STILL REPORTING 
RAIN AND AM NOT SEEING TEMPS COLD ENUF FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT 
THIS POINT. LATEST RUC BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE A MIX AND/OR CHANGEOVER 
WUD NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS COLD AIR TAKING ITS SWEET 
TIME MVG INTO CWA. BY THE TIME IT DOES SO...PCPN SHUD BE DWINDLING 
TO SHOWERS AND HV BACKED WAY OFF ON POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FOR THIS MRNG 
AND FOR MOST OF TODAY. 

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ALL DAY LIGHT RA/SN MIX OVR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
IN STEUBEN CNTY BUT WITH AFTN MAXES IN THE MID 30S AND MOISTURE 
EXITING RAPIDLY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMS...MAINLY ON THE ORDER OF 
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IF ANYTHING. 

FURTHER EAST ACRS THE WRN CATS COLD AIR WILL MV IN ARND DAYBREAK 
ENUF TO MIX ELEVATIONS ABV 2KFT WITH SNOW AND THINK THIS WILL BE THE 
CASE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS STATED PRVSLY THO...MOISTURE WILL BE ON 
THE DCRS WITH BEST AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL EAST OF THE AREA TWD 
THE GREENS/WHITES THIS AFTN. THUS ACCUMS WILL STILL LKLY RMN ARND 
ONE HALF INCH IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. 

OVERALL TREND WILL BE A DCRS IN POPS FM WEST TO EAST THRU THE MRNG 
HRS AS H5 SYSTEM MVS ACRS. BACK EDGE OF PCPN EXITING STEUBEN CNTY 
WITH BULK OF THE PCPN ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 CORRIDOR...ALTHO STILL 
SOME LINGERING PCPN BACK TO THE WEST. BY DAYBREAK...THINK THAT BACK 
EDGE WILL APPCH I-81 AND THEN WORK INTO THE WRN CATS ARND NOON.  
EXPECT PCPN ACRS THE NRN MOHAWK VLY/TUG HILL PLATEAU AS VORT LOBES 
ROTATE ARND H5 LOW SETTING UP ACRS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTN. 

HV DROPPED AFTN MAXES TODAY TO ACCNT FOR NW FLOW AND OVERALL CLDY 
CONDS AS FLOW COMES OFF OF LK ONTARIO...CLOSER TO LAV GUIDANCE. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT 
INCRSG ACRS THE CWA. MAV/MET VALUES HV POINTED TO POTENTIAL FOR WIND 
ADVISORY OVR THE PAST DAY...AND LATEST NUMBERS HV NOT DEVIATED MUCH 
FM THIS. MOMENTUM TRANSFERS FM MOST RECENT BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE 
POTENTIAL OVRNGT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH LL WINDS ARND 2KFT 
INCRSG TO 40KTS SHORTLY AFT 00Z. THUS WILL HOIST WIND ADVISORY FOR 
TONIGHT AND PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. ALTHO 
FINGER LKS WILL STAND LESS CHC OF SEEING ADVISORY CRITERIA 
WINDS...EXACT DIVIDING LINE OF WHERE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IS 
TRICKY AS A TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AS THE 00Z NAM SHOWS WUD 
BLANKET THE ENTIRE FA WITH STRONG WINDS. ADVISORY DEPENDENT ON HOW 
MUCH LOW WINDS UP ALONG COAST AND WHERE IT DOES SO.  BUT WITH 
POTENTIAL MOST CERTAINLY THERE FOR GUSTS TO OVR 45MPH TONIGHT AND 
SATURDAY...BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ISSUE FOR ENTIRE REGION. MOST 
LIKELY TIMEFRAME WILL BE FM 00Z THIS EVNG THRU 18Z SATURDAY UNTIL 
LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. 

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...LK EFFECT WILL TRY TO DVLP OVRNGT. LACK 
OF SIGNIFICANTLY CLD AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR MUCH PCPN 
DVLPMNT OVRNGT...BUT H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -3C WUD GIVE DELTA T ARND 
13C FOR THE OVRNGT. THIS WILL BE ENUF FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AND 
WILL GO WITH LKLY-CAT POPS FM FINGER LKS INTO MOHAWK VLY AND 
SUSQUEHANNA REGION THRU 06Z. MOST AREAS WILL START OFF AS RAIN WITH 
A GRADUAL MIX WITH SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT EXCEPT ACRS THE LK PLAIN WHERE 
TEMPS RMN ELEVATED. BY 06Z ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE OVER TO 
SNOW. BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST INVERSION LOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY AFT 06Z SO 
HV DCRS POPS A TAD AS DELTA T ARND 11C TO 12C. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS 
LKLY TO BE RELEGATED TO TUG HILL PLATEAU AND ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN FM 
CORTLAND TO OTSEGO CNTYS TONIGHT. EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW 
BY SAT MRNG. 

LK EFFECT PCPN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DCRS IN 
COVERAGE OVR TIME. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALMOST EVERYWHERE 
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 
MID-MRNG AND EVERYWHERE SAT AFTN. 

WK RIDGING BUILDS IN SAT NGT...ENUF TO KILL OFF ANY LINGER LK EFFECT 
AFT MIGNIGHT. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY 
WITH THE NEXT LOPRES SYSTEM/SFC BNDRY SPREADING POSSIBLY SPREADING 
SOME LGT PCPN IN SUN AFTN. AS IS TYPICAL...GFS IS QUICKEST TO SPREAD 
MOISTURE INTO CWA IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS 
FOR SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHCS EXPECTED SUN NGT.  

WITH SW FLOW KICKING IN ACRS FA AND H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE ABV 0C 
AND H9 TEMPS TO +3C OR SO...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE U40S AND 
POSSIBLY NR 50F ON SUNDAY. 

OVERRUNNING PCPN EXPECTED TO MV IN SUN NGT. P-TYPE WILL BE TRICKY 
DRG THIS TIME PD AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS DROP INTO THE 
LOWER 30S. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ALL RAIN INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING TO 
A RA/SN MIX LATE. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN SOMEWHAT OF AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PLAINS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS SHOW THIS TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WILL BEGIN S RAIN AND LOOKS TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE BUILDS IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO BRING A BRIEF PAUSE TO THE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KITH AND
KBGM. STEADY MAINLY LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE TAF SITES AND
WILL END FROM W TO E STARTING AROUND 09Z AT KELM. FOR ALL BUT SYR
AND RME AND ITH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE DRY SLOT.
WITH A NW FLOW OFF OF CAYUGA LAKE KITH SHOULD REMAIN MVFR ALL DAY.
FURTHER NORTH NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO KEEP THEM IN
MVFR CIGS AND A FEW -SHRA. THIS EVENING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
CAA WILL BRING BACK -SH OF RAIN AND SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
BACK TO MVFR AND MAYBE IFR FOR ALL BUT KAVP. 

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE W TO NW. WINDS
INCREASE MIDDAY AND AFTN TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TONIGHT WITH CAA AND ALIGNED FLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY. 

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT TO SAT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT NGT TO SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 
SUN AFTN TO TUE...MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...TAC