FXUS63 KDLH 242129 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ROBUST PHASING PROCESS HAS BEGUN THIS AFTERNOON AS INTENSE SRN
STREAM IMPULSE IN NE TEXAS BEGINS TO LIFT NNEWD IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WHICH IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING
SEWD. VERY IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALIES ARE NOTED WITH EACH OF THESE
FEATURES..WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG AND DEEP CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER IOWA BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM LIFTING NWD..VERY STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN
PERSISTS AND COMPOSITE OF KDLH/KMPX/KARX/KDMX/KDVN RADARS NOW SHOW
NEW ECHOES BLOSSOMING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
CURRENT LULL IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE
NEXT 4-6 HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THIS LARGE AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES BACK NWD ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL..THERE ARE FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL THEME OF
MESSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ADJACENT TO LAKE SUEPRIOR. THE PEAK OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM ROUGHLY 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY ON
CHRISTMAS..ALTHOUGH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES MAY PERSIST WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN CWA.
ONE INCREASING CONCERN IS THE PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER WEST PLACEMENT
OF THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE WARM NOSE ALOFT PUSHING INTO NW WI
TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE LATEST NAM RUN PLACES A 75 KT
SERLY LLJ ACROSS NRN WI LATE TONITE..WITH A WARM NOSE ABOVE ZERO
NOW AS FAR WEST AS DULUTH AND THE MN ARROWHEAD. THIS MAY ACT TO
BRING MIXED PRECIP FARTHER WEST THAN WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE IT
INDICATED. HOWEVER..IF HEAVY PRECIP IS ONGOING /AS EXPECTED/ AS
WARM NOSE TRIES TO PUSH IN..DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP PRECIP AS ALL SNOW IN MINNESOTA. IT SEEMS A MORE SURE BET
THAT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
FOR A WHILE IN NW WI..SO WE HAVE TONED DOWN ACCUMS A BIT MORE IN
OUR FAR ERN CWA..AND TIGHTENED UP THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT EXTENDING
FROM ROUGHLY SPOONER AND HAYWARD NEWD TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA.
SNOW/WIND SHUD BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER IOWA AND THEN SLOWLY
STARTS TO FILL WHILE DRIFTING EWD. WE STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOWS TO
PERSIST ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE THE AREA FRIDAY NITE/SATURDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IN BROAD WRAP AROUND PRECIP AREA..BUT
PRECIP RATES AND SNOW AMOUNTS SHUD BE MUCH LESS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THRUSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS HOLD ON THE REGION AS IT SLOWLY
FILLS AND MOVES NEWRD. BY 00Z MONDAY LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE
OVR LOWER MI...WITH LINGERING FLURRIES. RIDGING BUILDS OVR THE WRN
1/2 OF THE NATION...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND UNDER FAST NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL MEAN A BIT COOLER TEMPS WITH PASSING SLIGHT CHANCES OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER WAVE OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WI/NERN MN THIS
AFT AND CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. VSBYS WILL BE BLO
3SM AND CIGS BLO OVC010. THERE WILL BE NO IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO G30KT...BUT NR KDLH GUSTS TO
40KT ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 29 27 29 / 100 100 100 70
INL 24 24 18 21 / 100 100 100 70
BRD 26 28 25 27 / 100 100 100 70
HYR 30 32 28 29 / 100 100 100 60
ASX 30 32 28 30 / 100 100 100 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018-
019-021-025-026-033>036-038.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ020-037.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ002>004-
006>009.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ001.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
MILLER/CLC
