FXUS64 KLZK 281150
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HRS. HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT
TO INCRS ACRS THE AREA TODAY. LGT WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG...WL BCM
SLY ARND 10 KTS BY MIDDAY. PARTS OF NWRN AR WL SEE GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS THIS AFTN. LOW LVL RH WL INCRS FM THE SW LATE TNGT...WITH MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED OVR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SWRN AR AFT 29/09Z. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MIXING 
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A FEW STATIONS 
REPORTING CALM WINDS FELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWED FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER 
WITH A DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH AND LOWERED DEW PTS...WOULD NOT 
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST TRAILING
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIP LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CWA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT UP TO
THIS POINT.

CHILLY TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FROPA...WITH 
HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE CLOSED UPR LOW...CENTERED OVR CNTRL CA EARLY THIS MRNG...IS 
PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACRS SRN TX/NRN MX EARLY IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE 
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL 
RUNS...BUT DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK/SPEED OF THE STORM SYS 
ACRS THE REGION BY WED. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER AT 
28/00Z REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW.

THE GFS RMNS FURTHER S WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYS...WITH RAIN 
CHCS CONFINED TO MAINLY SERN AR ON WED. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TAKES 
THE UPR SYS ACRS AR WED AND WED NGT...WITH PRECIP AFFECTED MOST OF 
THE FA. OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY SIG CHGS TO THE GOING FCST WITH THE 
EXPECTATION THAT THE MODELS WL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 
COMING DAYS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDS WL PREVAIL LATER IN THE PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$