FXUS61 KILN 301515
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1015 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL WORK THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE TN VLY TNGT. S/W THAT WAS FCST TO DROP ACRS
NRN OH TNGT...ALL MODELS TAKE A LITTLE FARTHER N AND SO ANY PCPN
SHOULD STAY N.
CENTER OF HIGH WORKS TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUE. FA WILL BE ON
BACKSIDE OF HIGH.
DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW DIGS THRU TX INTO THE LOWER MS VLY TUE NGT.
MODELS DIVERGE ON TRACK AND SPEED OF SFC LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE
LOWER MS VLY WED. GFS IS THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST NE PUSHING ITS LOW
INTO ERN KY BY 00Z THU. OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SLOWER AND
GENERALLY KEEP THE LOW BACK TOWARDS CNTRL KY/TN BORDER. WENT A
NAM/GEM HEMISPHERIC BLEND FOR WED. WAITED UNTIL THE AFTN TO BRING
IN THE BETTER POPS. WENT LIKELY EVERYWHERE.
LOW SLIDES E WED NGT. MODELS ARE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BACKED OFF ON THE SNOW SHOWERS A LITTLE.
MAV/MET WERE SIMILAR FOR TNGT THRU TUE NGT...SO WENT A BLEND.
LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET ON WED...SINCE THE GFS APPEARS TO
BRING IN THE PCPN TOO QUICKLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LIKELY ACRS W CENTRAL OHIO
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MI. WL END ANY MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VLY.
SOLNS SHOW A LARGE DIVERGENCE NEXT WEEKEND WITH ECMWF MAINTAINING THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. WL
FOLLOW SOLN CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH CONTD COLD TEMPERATURE BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF ILN/S FA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIP HAS EXITED TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A LOT OF VARIABILITY
WITH UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IS CAUSING SOME CONSTERNATION TO THE
FORECAST. TRIED TO KEEP AN HOUR OR THREE OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND
IMMEDIATE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...BUT BELIEVE THAT SCT TO
OCCASIONALLY BKN SC EARLY THIS MORNING MAY DIP BELOW 3KFT. TREND
IS FOR HIGHER CIGS THOUGH...SO TRIED TO KEEP LOWER STUFF IN ONLY
EARLY TODAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HIT CMH AREA TONIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK IN OVER WESTERN CWA...THOUGH LUNKEN WILL
LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH WIND WITH THE WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
