FXUS64 KHUN 020925
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
325 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST 
AREA THIS EARLY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE NW 
GULF BEGINS TO GRADUALLY TRACK TOWARD THE NE. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS 
OF THE LATEST MODEL SUITES THIS MORNING BRING THE SFC LOW ACROSS NW 
AL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAINFALL CONTINUING...IF NOT INCREASING IN 
INTENSITY JUST A BIT. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL XPCTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY 
TODAY...ESPECIALLY E OF THE LOW...OR FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-65. 
AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 6 
PM TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TODAY WAS TO 
REMOVE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM THE GRIDS. AT THIS POINT...EVEN WITH THE 
SFC LOW PASSING TO THE W...IT DOESN'T LOOK AS IF DEW PTS AND LOW 
LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
RAINFALL AND SFC WINDS ARE THEN XPCTED TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF TONIGHT 
AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TOWARD THE NE STATES.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS THEN SLATED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE TN 
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND THU AS A STRONG/EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL WX 
CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WELL THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND PERIOD AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. ONE THING OF INTEREST 
THOUGH THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT IS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WRN GULF...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A 
CONSISTENT TREND NOW FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 
GLOBAL MODELS WANT TO TAKE THIS NEXT LOW ON MORE OF AN EWD TRACK 
INTO SAT...BEFORE TAKING IT NEWD WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC SUN. THE 
MODELS ALSO HINT AT A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE 
AREA AGAIN ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. WITH A POLAR AIR MASS 
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP FROM 
LATE FRI NT THROUGH SAT MAY IN FACT TURN OUT TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW. 
THICKNESS VALUES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS AT THIS POINT SEEM TO SUPPORT 
THIS THINKING...AND AS SUCH HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW OR 
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FRI AND SAT...AS THIS NEXT SFC 
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF.

A BRIEF CLEARING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND 
MON ALTHOUGH AS STATED ABOVE...OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 
NORMAL. YET ANOTHER AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS MAY THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE 
WRN GULF ON TUE...AND BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARD THE NE WED IF THE LATEST 
MODEL SUITES ARE CLOSE. THICKNESS VALUES THOUGH DO NOT LOOK AS DENSE 
WITH THIS NEXT POSSIBLE SFC LOW...AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OR CHANCE FOR JUST SHOWERS AT THIS TIME TUE AND WED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    56  38  46  31  46 /  90  30  10  10  10 
SHOALS        55  37  47  30  46 /  90  30  10  10  10 
VINEMONT      55  38  46  30  45 /  90  30  10  10  10 
FAYETTEVILLE  54  37  45  28  43 / 100  40  10  10  10 
ALBERTVILLE   56  39  46  31  46 /  90  30  10  10  10 
FORT PAYNE    56  38  46  29  44 / 100  40  10  10  10 
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     CULLMAN...DEKALB...JACKSON...MADISON...MARSHALL...MORGAN.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

$$

09