FXUS62 KFFC 020936 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MUCH ADVERTISED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN MS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE FL/GA
STATE LINE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...TAKING THE LOW INTO
CENTRAL KY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR HAVE SEEN ALMOST AN 1 INCH
OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCHES ELSEWHERE. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE BREAK IN
THE RAINS OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINS
TO FALL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO
ATHENS LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ONLY AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
SOME ISOLATED 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS. CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ADJUST THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH...SO WILL LET THINGS RIDE AS IS
FOR NOW. THE SURFACE LOW HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 987 MB...AND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFF THE VA COASTS...EXPECT A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAVE POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF NORTH AND ALL OF CENTRAL GA...WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA WHERE 35 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS ALABAMA.
AS FOR SEVERE STORMS... SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT CENTRAL GA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THE MAIN THREAT. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...COUPLED
WITH LOW CAPE VALUES NOSING UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...DOES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 200-500 J/KG MAY
BE OBSERVED BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD. WILL
PLAY IT SAFE AND ADD SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES...BUT ONLY FOR ZONES
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO MILLEDGEVILLE
LINE.
THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH BY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS COOL DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...WENT
WITH 100% POPS FOR TODAY AND A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS/LOWS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER GULF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY...THEN TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO GA OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...STILL PREFER
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF...THAT DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF...AND TRACKS IT UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...
WITH MUCH LESS WEATHER IMPACT HERE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT...AND PULL
ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO WARRANT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
HAS WARMED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS UP...THEY ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE... IF
ADEQUATE MOISTURE CAN BE POOLED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
STILL SUSPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE COLDER
AIR... BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FOR NORTH GA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
PREVAIL SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO KICK EAST OF THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TREKS ACROSS THE AREA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE WILL KEEP WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ALSO AN ISSUE THROUGH 18Z DUE TO 50KT WINDS AT 2KFT. IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS UNTIL AROUND 18Z...WITH CIGS BECOMING MVFR AS RAIN MOVES NE
AND OUT OF THE AREA. WIND SHIFT FROM SE TO SW WILL ACCOMPANY
INCREASE IN CIGS AROUND 23Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS STILL 10-12KTS. BY
05Z THU WINDS SHOULD BE EAST WITH 20KT GUSTS RETURNING.
31/LEG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 54 42 56 35 53 / 100 20 5 10 10
ATLANTA 58 41 54 35 52 / 100 20 5 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 50 36 47 31 48 / 100 30 5 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 56 40 53 32 51 / 100 20 5 10 10
COLUMBUS 64 45 59 38 55 / 100 10 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 52 41 52 35 51 / 100 20 5 10 10
MACON 65 46 61 36 56 / 100 10 5 10 10
ROME 59 41 55 34 52 / 100 20 5 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 60 40 53 31 51 / 100 10 5 10 10
VIDALIA 69 49 62 40 59 / 100 20 5 5 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...
DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...
FAYETTE...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
39/31
