FXUS64 KMRX 252017
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...COOL FRONT MOVED THROUGH TODAY
CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEW POINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN BUT KEEP ENOUGH
MIXING GOING TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT. SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MRX CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL FALL TO NEAR -5C. FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO NEAR 2000 FEET BY
LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT PCPN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLURRIES AND
LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG TERM WILL BE
GENERALLY UNSETTLED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES MAKES FORECAST TREACHEROUS AT BEST. TENDED TO FAVOR
EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART. TROUGH AXIS OF UPPER LOW
SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH
BEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS PRECLUDE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPS...
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO MEX GUIDANCE BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 38 53 34 53 31 / 10 10 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 36 51 33 49 30 / 10 10 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 36 50 33 50 29 / 10 10 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 35 50 31 43 28 / 10 10 20 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SON/LCM
