FXUS62 KMLB 060055
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
755 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS SHIFTING STEADILY 
SOUTH AND WILL EXIT FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS SHORTLY. NORTH/NORTHWEST 
FLOW DOWN THE PENINSULA WILL ADVECT COOLER/DRIER AIR THROUGH THE 
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOMING 
NORTHEAST/EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INDICATING THE ONSET OF AIR MASS 
MODIFICATION...SO DO NOT EXPECT A RAPID FALL IN TEMPS.  THE LOWEST 
READINGS IN THE NORTH INTERIOR SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW 40 DEGREES.
THE 00Z TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST...SO 
DO NOT PLAN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER FROM THE CHILLY READINGS OF TODAY 
(WHEN HIGHS OCCURRED MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS)...BUT IT WILL 
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW OUR CLIMO MID 70 READINGS.  THERE WILL BE 
MORE SUNSHINE BUT WE DO EXPECT SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS MOVING IN OFF 
THE ATLANTIC ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS...SO IT LOOKS LIKE 
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...REMAINING LOW CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT SKIES 
TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS. ON 
SUNDAY MODELS INDICATE A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETTING UP 
WITH WINDS BECOMING NE...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
OFF THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT BORDERLINE MVFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FIRST AT THE COASTAL SITES FOR EARLY AFTERNOON 
AND THEN PUSH FARTHER INLAND TOWARDS MCO BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES 
WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW TO VEER TO NORTH.  THE MODELS 
ALL SHOW THE WINDS DECREASING NEARSHORE...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE 
ADVISORY THERE TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.  WILL HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR THE 
GULF STREAM IN THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE LEG THOUGH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS 
NEARSHORE AND 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN 
INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST OR NEAR THE WEST WALL OF 
THE GULF STREAM...WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE WINDS... 
(I.E. KEEPING THEM MORE BACKED TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COAST).  
THEREFORE BOATERS WILL NEED TO STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST 
AND CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS 
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO 
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH