FXUS64 KMRX 010810
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS SWRN VA
AND NE TN...WHERE TEMPS HAD DIPPED BELOW 32 DEGREES. THIS FOG SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER...BEFORE THE STRONG WRN GULF COAST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SWIFTLY NE LATE TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO
MOS BLEND ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...WHICH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
GRIDS AND NEIGHBORS.
FOR TONIGHT...TIMING THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND ONSET OF RAINY/WINDY
WEATHER WAS STILL VERY GOOD IN PREVIOUS GRIDS...AND THUS I CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WITH JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 KNOTS (NAM-WRF MODEL) ON WEDNESDAY
...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS ISSUED EARLIER. CLOUDS ON
THE WAY AND INCREASING SE TO S WINDS...LED ME TO FAVOR THE MILDER
MOS MINS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...PATTERN REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THUS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING BY THURSDAY. CURRENTLY APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR PRIMARILY AS RAIN WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS AS SETUP APPEARS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT. WILL CONTINUE HIGH WIND WATCH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN GULF BY SATURDAY AS SOUTHERN
STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR ATLANTIC COAST AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON HOW FAR WEST PRECIP WILL SPREAD. BUMPED
UP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
FOR LATE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT. FOR TEMPS...TENDED TO FAVOR BLEND OF
MAT/MAV GUIDANCE FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DID NOT HAVE ANY REASON
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 41 55 42 49 / 0 90 100 60 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 41 55 43 46 / 0 50 100 70 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 39 52 43 48 / 0 50 100 70 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 32 53 43 44 / 0 20 100 80 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.
TN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...JOHNSON...MCMINN...NW BLOUNT...
NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...
NORTHWEST MONROE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI...
WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/LCM
