FXUS61 KAKQ 300750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
250 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MDLS IN GENLY GOOD AGREEMENT W/ ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF SFC CDFNT FM
MIDDAY INTO ERY THIS EVE. CURRENTLY...QUITE MILD ACRS RGN THX TO
DP LYRD SWLY FLO. WL CONT PAST FCST TREND W/ PROGRESSION OF RA
INTO/THROUGH FA...KPG POPS AOA 60-80% THRUT (PCPN LAST TO ARRIVE
MID/LT AFTN NR THE CST). MAY START OFF W/ PSNY IN SOME AREAS...ESP
E...THOUGH DAY XPCTD TO AVG OUT CLDY. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NW TO
U60S SE...RDGS SHOULD FALL AFT FNTL PASSAGE FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN
HRS (W-E). QPF GENLY AVGG 1/4-1/3".

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS/PCPN INITIALLY SLO TO EXIT THIS EVE...FOLLOWED BY QUIK CLRG
TREND OVRNGT AS DNSLPG WNW FLO TAKES OVR. LO TEMPS FM THE M30S
NW...TO L/M40S SE.

NICE/SEASONABLE WX TO START DEC ON TUE...AS SFC HI PRES IS QUIK TO
MV INTO THE CAROLINAS AND M/ULVL FLO BCMS ZNL BY AFTN. NRN AREAS
MAY BE BRUSHED BY PTCHY/AREAS OF CLDNS...OTRW XPCTG SKC. HI TEMPS
IN THE 50S.

SFC HI PRES SITS NR THE CSTL CAROLINAS TUE EVE...LEADING TO NR
CALM CONDS AND GOOD CHC THAT TEMPS DROP QUIKLY...B4 LEVELING OFF
OVRNGT. INITIALLY STARTS OUT CLR...THEN INCRSG WAA LEADS TO M/H
CLDNS SPRDG INTO RGN FM THE WSW AHD OF NEXT STM SYS (TAKING SHAPE
INVOF WRN GULF CST STATES). LO TEMPS IN THE 30S IN MANY
LCTNS...L40S RIGHT NR THE CST.

FOR WED...LO PRES CONTS TO STRENGTHEN TRACKING NE FM THE CNTRL
GULF CST STATES (AND ULVL TROUGH DIVES SE THROUGH THE UPR
PLAINS/WRN LAKES RGN). WL CONT W/ INCRSG CLDNS ON WED...AND A PD
OF RA PSBL FM SW TO NE IN THE AFTN. LLVL FLO INCRSS FM THE
SE...RESULTING IN BRZY/WNDY CONDS. HI TEMPS FM THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MDLS CONTG TREND OF MR WWD/INLAND TRACK TO SFC LO PRES MVG NE
INVOF MTNS WED NGT...THEN INTO INTR NEW ENG THU MRNG. AFT INITIAL
AREA OF WAA/PCPN LIFTS NE THROUGH RGN WED EVE...ANOTHER RND OF
SHRAS/(PSBL T CNTRL/E) XPCTD W/ SFC CDFNT/MLVL TROUGH DURG OVRNGT
HRS WED NGT. L/MLVL FLO BCMS SWLY ERY THU...LEADING TO SGFNT DRY
AIR PUNCH INTO FA. LWRD POPS SHARPLY AFT (ERY) THU MRNG HRS...AND
RAISED TEMPS SVRL DEGS F (INTO THE L/M60S). COLDER AMS TO FOLLOW
TO CLS OUT THE WK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS MORNING BEGINS WITH AN OVC CI DECK ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLC. 
A FEW WDLY SCT SHWRS HV SINCE MVED OFFSHORE THE ERN SHORE OVER THE 
PAST HR. LATER PRECIP SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FROPA THIS AFTN. 
CEILINGS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE 1KT FEET...POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR 
AT TIMES. THIS IFR WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 06 TAFS...BUT IF TRENDS 
CONTINUE A TEMPO GROUP MAY BE ADDED WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. -SHRA SHOULD 
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON VIS...AS VIS'S SHOULD REMAIN AOA 4-5SM 
FOR BULK OF EVENT. 

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN TO 
THE W/NW WHICH WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS. DEW POINTS DROP SHARPLY 
MON NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION TUE MRNG. 

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE THE VFR 
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION WILL 
MOVE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA BUT WILL BRING 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO EASTERN VIRGINIA. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN AND 
AREAS OF IFR WED NIGHT AND THU. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE 
THU AND BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS PICKED UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM 
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NW. SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN 
INTACT...THOUGH CONDS ARE MARGINAL SCA IN MANY LOCATIONS. (CONDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP TO SOLID SCA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING.) 
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN 
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AS A 
GOOD CAA PUSH DVLPS OVER THE WATERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 
LATE TUE AM. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE LOW PRES  
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO S WED 
NIGHT/ERLY THU AS SFC LOW MOVES SW/NE OVER LAND. MDLS ARE COMING 
(SOMEWHAT) IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT DIFFER 
DRAMATICALLY WRT INTENSITY. TOOK A MDL BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD 
WHICH YIELDS HIGHER WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST. FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A 
BORDERLINE SOUTHERLY GALE EVENT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO 
ACHIEVE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W/NW LATE THU BEFORE HIGH PRES MOVES 
BACK OVER THE RGN BY THE WKND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TDA MARKS THE END OF NOV 2009. CERTAINLY BEEN A WET MONTH ACRS THE
FA...W/ MANY AREAS HVG PCPN DEPARTURES OF A CPL OF INCHES ABV NRML.

FOR RIC...
EVEN W/O RAINFALL TDA (THE 30TH)...NOV 2009 WILL END UP THE WETTEST ON
RCRD. OFFICIALLY...AS OF THE 29TH...RIC HAD MEASURED 9.20 INCHES
OF PCPN.

FOR ORF...
EVEN W/O RAINFALL TDA (THE 30TH)...NOV 2009 WILL END UP THE WETTEST ON
RCRD. OFFICIALLY...AS OF THE 29TH...ORF HAD MEASURED 8.78 INCHES OF
PCPN.

WRT TEMPS...
AFT AN UNSEASONABLY WRM DAY ON SUN (THE 29TH)...RIC AVG TEMPS MAY
END UP IN THE TOP 10 (FOR WRMST NOV)...TOPPING #9 (53.6 SET IN
1975) OR #10 (53.3 SET IN 1979).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>633-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/BKH
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...SMF 
MARINE...SMF 
CLIMATE...AKQ