FXUS61 KAKQ 160707
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT 
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 
STATES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CANADIAN RIDGE SPILLS E OVR MTS WITH LL CAA SETTING IN. PLNTY OF
MID/HIGH LVL CLDNS THIS EVE...BUT TSCTNS SUGGESTS DCRG CLDNS THRU
THE NITE. LOWS 30-40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASICALLY A TMP FCST AS CANADIAN HIGH PRS DOMINATES. CNTR OF THE
SFC HI BLDS OVR THE REGION WED NGT/THU. H85 TMPS SPRT LOWS BTWN 
20-30 WITH HIGHS 40-45 WED & THU. L-M40S FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISPARITY WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT SOUTHERN 
STREAM SYSTEM...THOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO TREND NWRD LIKE THE 
EURO. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MV THIS SYSTEM NE ALONG THE SE 
COAST..BUT THE GFS MVS THIS SYSTEM FARTHER OUT TO SEA ONCE IT 
REACHES THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THE EURO WAITS UNTIL THIS SYSTEM 
REACHED THE DELMARVA. SINCE THERE IS STILL SO MUCH UNCERTAINITY...
OPTED TO GO WITH LOW CHC POPS...MAINLY EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
AND SINCE TEMPS WILL BE ONLY THE COLD SIDE...IF SYSTEM DOES END UP
MAKING ITS WAY THIS FAR NORTH, WE COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX MAINLY
ALONG AND W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A -RASN MIX WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED CHARACTERIZED AS
COOL...40S FOR HIGHS AND MID 20S/30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHERLY SURGE NOW ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AS
SFC COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LOOK FOR
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY HIGH CI TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AND
INTO FRI. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS. THIS COULD BRING PERIODS OF PCPN AND LOWER CEILINGS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS...DURING PART OF SAT AND ERY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BRINGING A PROLONGED...
STRONG PERIOD OF CAA TO THE REGION. CONTINUED STRONG SCA HEADLINE
FOR ALL WATERS AS GUSTS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 30 KTS. CUD SEE A
FEW GUSTS IN THE 35 KT RANGE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS LOOK
TO TURN NNW AND DROP OFF A BIT BY WED EVENING...BUT WL REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND SCA CRITERIA...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED LATER
TO DECIDE IF SCA FLAGS NEED TO PERSIST.

HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE N BY SAT....WITH GRADIENT NNE FLOW 
INCREASES BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE 
CAROLINA COAST BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONT FOR THE APPOMATTOX AT MATTOAX AND THE
NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE LTST FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633-
     650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/MPR
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...