FXUS63 KJKL 281102
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
602 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS SETTLED IN OVER ERN KY OVERNIGHT. THE
CALM WINDS COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES HAS LED TO A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT. THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE ENHANCED FOR SAT NITE BUT WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...SUN NITE LOW TEMPS
SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW RH WILL
ALLOW THE SFC TO WARM NICELY ON SAT AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60. A RETURN TO SW WINDS WILL ADVECT EVEN WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA FOR SUN AND HIGHS SHOULD FIRMLY REACH THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE CWFA. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING FROM THE NRN PLAINS COUPLED
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWRLY SFC WINDS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE FCST BY LATE SUN EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS TO THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS
TO THE TIMING...ALTHOUGH EVEN THAT IS NOT VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE GFS TIMING WHICH BRINGS THE PCPN INTO THE FCST
AFTER 00Z ON MON AND HAVE PUSHED THE POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR SUN NITE/MON MORNING. BUT HAVE MOVED THE PCPN TO OUR MOST ERN
COUNTIES BY MON AFTN AND COMPLETELY OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY MON
NITE. WITH THE COLD AIR AND PCPN ON MON...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE
MUCH ABOVE THE SUN NITE LOWS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. 

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

EAST KENTUCKY REMAINS IN NO MAN/S LAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD. HAD HOPES THAT TODAY WOULD BRING A SWING TOWARD
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
...HOWEVER THE OPPOSITE HAS OCCURRED WITH RESPECTED MODELS STICKING
TO THEIR GUNS. GFS TRIES TO SHUNT THE SYSTEM FAR TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WITH SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST COAST.
EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND
CREATES A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND WOULD MEAN COLDER TEMPERATURES AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. THE EURO HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN EJECTING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE LOW RIDING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CWA. THIS IS A
WARMER/WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
COMPROMISE...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF CONSISTENCY AND BETTER
OVERALL PERFORMANCE IN THE LONG TERM. THE ONE THING THAT I CAN HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN IS THAT MODELS HANDLING OF THE MORE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET IS REALISTIC. THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX HAS BEEN NEGATIVE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...AND WITH A GENERALLY 10-14 DAY LAG
BETWEEN NEGATIVE VALUES AND A RAMP UP...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...POSSIBLE
PHASING...SHOULD BE THE END RESULT AS TO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS TRACKS.

WITH THE EURO SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE 
DRYING IN THE SOUTHEAST AS POPS INCREASE OVERALL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH 
ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WILL GO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH LOW END 
CHANCE IN THE NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE IN THE SOUTH UNTIL DETAILS 
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM 
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY 
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AS 
THE MERCURY STRUGGLES TO RECOVER EACH AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE. COULD SEE SOME LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND AND BELOW FREEZING 
IN THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...WITH RIDGES STAYING IN 
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...ABE