FXUS63 KSGF 261148
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL DEAL WITH SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH
ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY IS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES OFF TO OUR WEST
AND NORTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING AROUND
THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA NOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN KANSAS SHOULD HELP TO EJECT THIS SURFACE
FEATURE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO DRAW COLD AIR
FROM NORTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY BACK INTO UTAH THIS
MORNING...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL THAT COLD AIR IS HERE TO STAY FOR A
WHILE...AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR TODAY...GFS DRIVES THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI SOME TIME BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...9 AM AND
NOON TODAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL BELOW WHAT MAV GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOR
HIGHS TODAY. FOLLOWED MET/WRF GUIDANCE ON HIGHS TODAY...GENERALLY
LOOK FOR MID 20S FOR HIGH TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES. LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
PARTS NORTH WITH. WITH LOW CLOUDS AND CYCLONIC FLOW THOUGH...DID
INCLUDE SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR PART OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS WELL
TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SGF CWA.

PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WE STAY UNDER A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE LOW BEGINS TO
PULL NORTHEAST. STILL...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WE
CONTINUE A NORTHWEST FLOW AT LEAST INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE CWA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR A SLIGHT WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. 

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WITH BULK
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS FEATURE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH SLT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS IN THE 12Z TAF FOR JLN
THIS MORNING BASED REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND PUSH OF ADDITIONAL
COLD AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION OF SNOW AT SPRINGFIELD AND BRANSON FOR NOW AS MOISTURE 
THINS OUT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW FLAKES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
FROM THE WEST WITH STRONG GRADIENT REMAINING AROUND THE LOW.
WILL VEER WINDS A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WABBLE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THINK A VFR OVERCAST IS LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$