FXUS63 KDDC 020920
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CONCENTRATE ON TEMPERATURES, COLD
TEMPERATURES AT THAT, AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO
OUR EXTREME WEST TONIGHT OR NOT.
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 08Z, THE COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING WAS WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AT 08Z, THE
FRONT WAS APPROXIMATELY FROM JUST NORTH OF COU, MO TO NEAR BVO, OK
TO JUST NORTH OF LBB, TX, TO A LOW NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO,
THEN ARC'S NORTH TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS
MEANS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY,
KEEPING A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH. THERE WILL BE STRATUS CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARD MID MORNING
THROUGH NOON, OVERTOPPED WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, INSULATING THE
LOWER LAYERS AND ALLOWING ALMOST NO SOLAR HEATING TODAY. SO, HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY, WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, BUT...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TONIGHT, AND AN UPPER
WAVE WILL SKIM OUR VERY WESTERN-MOST ZONES. SO WITH VERY COLD AIR
HAVING A FIRM HOLD AT THE LOW LAYERS AND UPPER LIFT SUPPLIED BY
THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE, HAVE PLACED 20 POPS IN THE WESTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN OUR NORTHWEST AND THE LOWER 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. WIND CHILL INDICES WILL DIP TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, AND TO THE 13F TO 16F RANGE IN
OUR SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS ON THURSDAY, WITH SOME DECREASE
IN CLOUDS IN OUR EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOWER 30S IN EHA AND GCK, BUT VARY TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE EAST WHERE
A BIT OF SUN WILL SHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL ALSO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, SETTING UP
FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 13F
AT HYS AND GCK, AND 15-16F AT DDC AND P28. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
COLDER TONIGHT, BUT LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL STILL BE SEEN AS VERY
COLD TO MOST SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DAYS 3-7...
THE GFS/GEM AND UKMET ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6(MONDAY). THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN
OUTLIER AND WAS DISREGARDED.
A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY FROM OFF THE WEST COAST INTO ALASKA
BY SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN FACT THE WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO MEXICO AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE TROUGHING AND MOISTURE RETURN.
MEANWHILE, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN THE PLAINS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE EVEN AHEAD OF THE
COLD HIGH, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONG ZONAL MOMENTUM AND RESULTANT
MID LEVEL CAPPING ABOVE THE COLD LAYER. THE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
WARM IN THESE SITUATIONS. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL COLD/MOIST LAYER. THE
LIGHT PRECIP MAY BE ENHANCED SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE GFS/GEM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS LOOK MORE
REASONABLE THAN THE UKMET. THE UKMET LOWERS SFC PRESSURE TOO MUCH
WHICH IS A CHARACTERISTIC MODEL BIAS.
THE GEM LOWERS SFC PRESSURES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SHOULD KEEP WESTERN KANSAS SOCKED IN. IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM SECTOR WILL PUSH ON TUESDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW LEVEL COLD DOME WILL STAY IN PLACE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, THE PREVIOUS FCST OF ALL PRECIP TYPES WAS MAINTAINED.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST. A CLOUD DECK COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 3000/6000 FT EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN CLEAR OFF BY
MID-MORNING. NORTH WINDS AT 20-25KTS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 18 36 15 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 37 15 32 13 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 36 17 31 14 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 38 19 34 15 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 37 16 32 13 / 0 0 0 0
P28 42 23 39 16 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN12/24/24
