FXUS63 KFGF 300205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
805 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE CLOUD TRENDS AND 
TEMPERATURES. FIRST CLOUD DECK HAS ALMOST RETREATED OUT OF THE
EASTERN FA INTO EASTERN MN. GOES IR SATELLITE LOOP AND 00Z BIS
SOUNDING ARE SHOWING THE SECOND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WORKING INTO
CENTRAL ND WITH WARM ADVECTION SURGE. KMBX SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
RETURNS. HOWEVER...WITH BIS SOUNDING SHOWING A THICK DRY LAYER
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 650 MB...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE.
UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO HINT OF PRECIPITATION YET.
HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE INTERVENING PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES LASTING A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE
MODIFIED SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. 

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR THE UPPER MVFR
THRESHOLD...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN MN...DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR KTVF AND KBJI AS THESE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST OUT OF THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
BRAMER