FXUS63 KEAX 011150
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
FCST CONCERN INVOLVES THE FUTURE TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEMS WELL TO THE
SW AND TO THE NW. UPPER TROUGH OVER ALBERTA AND NRN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIVE ESE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BURIED OVER NRN MEXICO WILL
GRADUALLY GET A KICK TO THE ENE TODAY. MODELS HAVE VARIED A LITTLE THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE OCCASIONALLY
THREATEN THE EXTREME SERN CWA WITH PRECIPITATION. LATEST 00Z RUNS
SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION CHCS FOR THE EXTREME SRN CWA ARE SMALL
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTH IN NRN LA/SRN ARK.
THIS KEEPS THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE SE OF THE CWA WITH THE ONLY
FORCING NOTED BEING ELEVATED FRONTOGENETICAL OVER THE SERN ONE THIRD
OF THE CWA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT...DYNAMIC/DIABATIC COOLING PROCESSES WILL BE MINIMIZED. THESE
COOLING PROCESSES WILL BE NECESSARY GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS BEING
ADVECTED SE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S BEHIND THE FRONT IN MONTANA. HAVE TRIMMED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SE CORNER AND HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE LOW CHC
CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS GUSTY AND DRY WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET.
CONTINUED TO GO A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY GIVEN BETTER
MIXING WITH THE DRY AND GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A COLD VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RACING THROUGH THE
CWFA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THURSDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. THE
COLDER AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR CIRCULATING AROUND THE COLD
VORTEX...IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES...WILL PROVIDE FOR A
THREAT OF SNOW FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR THE NRN CWFA.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING THE WIND AS THE ONLY ISSUE
OF NOTE FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER STEADY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT ONCE THE STRONG NOCTURNAL
INVERSION HAS BROKEN GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
CUTTER
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
