FXUS61 KGYX 270300
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR CAPE COD BY 8 AM
FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS AND F GENERALLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH RN ARRIVING FROM THE
S LATE AT NGT...SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...IN PART BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THUS WILL UPDATE TO BACK OFF ON PRCP
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WILL CONT AREAS OF F OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
-DZ PSBL.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST READINGS...MAINLY TO LWR
A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND RAISE A BIT IN A COUPLE
SPOTS.
ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST...JUST MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVED DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING A STRONG SFC LOW AND
MOVING IT NE TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK DIFFER HOWEVER
WITH THE ECMWF BEING FARTHEST EAST AND THE NAM AND GFS FAIRLY
CLOSE BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN QPF. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS
TOPPING 2 INCHES IN SOME PLACES. I PREFER THE NAM PRECIPITATION
PATTERN AND AMOUNTS. THAT SAID WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME OF THE
RIVERS ESPECIALLY THE PRESUMPSCOT RIVER AT WESTBROOK AND THE PEMI
AT WOODSTOCK THE SACO AT CONWAY AND THE SWIFT AT ROXBURY. I THINK
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL NEAR THE COAST LEAVING THE PRESUMPSCOT
AT HIGHEST RISK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DETAILS COMING BETTER INTO VIEW. FIRST ISSUE IS NOW
IN NRN ZONES FRI NIGHT. 12Z NAM BRINGS THE COLDER AIR INTO THE
LOW-MID LVLS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...AND WILL ONLY
GIVE IT A SMALL PART IN THE FRI NIGHT FORECAST. STILL ENOUGH COLD
AIR WORK IN DURING THE EVENING TO CHANGE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
SN BEFORE MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW...WHICH LOOKS TO BE EAST OF
PENOBSCOT BAY AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...HAS THE
POTENTIAL PRODUCE ACCUMS OF AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THESE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES THOUGH...AS
THERE'S STILL SOME TIME TO HOPEFULLY NARROW THINGS DOWN EVEN
FURTHER. ALSO WILL SEE NW WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE FRI
NIGHT...BUT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ...STRONGEST WINDS
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.
ON SAT...THE CWA CONTINUE TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRES WORKING IN FROM THE SW. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS AND ALLOW FOR A
BREEZY...IF NOT WINDY DAY. SUSTAINED NW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN...DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST P/SUNNY SKIES...AND
THE DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS DESPITE SOME CAA...WITH
HIGHS COMING IN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. IN THE MTNS...UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN...BUT MID LVL DRYING WILL HELP THIS
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE THE AFTERNOON.
SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE S SAT NIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL DIMINISH. HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE CWA ON SUN...AND
SHOULD A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOVE AVG ONCE AGAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THRU ON MON AND BRING ANOTHER CHC OF
PRECIP. THIS FRONT WILL USHER COLDER AIR...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN THROUGH WED...WITH THE NEXT CHC OF SIGNIF PRECIP IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...TREND WILL BE FOR LOW CLOUDS, F
AND EVENTUALLY RN TO OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA, IMPACTING ALL TAF
SITES. FOR TAF SITES...EXPECT LOCATIONS TO LWR TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT
CONT THRU FRIDAY WITH RN AND INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM...LINGERING LIFR FRI EVE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY SAT MORNING.
HOWEVER...NW WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING THE DAY SAT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS FAIRLY LGT AT THIS
TIME BUT SEAS CONT TO BE INFLUENCED BY SWELLS THOUGH THEY REMAIN
JUST BLO 5 FT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NE AND EXPECT TO SEE 25 KNOTS ON THE WATERS BEFORE NOON ON
FRIDAY SO THE SCA REMAINS UP FOR FRIDAY. WILL UPDATE FCST TO
INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA BUT THIS WILL HAVE LIMITED IF ANY
IMPACT ON THE FCST.
LONG TERM...IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW TRACKING E THRU THE MARITIMES
ON SAT...GOOD CHANCE OF W-NW GALES LATE FRI NIGHT RIGHT THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SAT. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH THROUGH SCA LVLS SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...AND SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
