FXUS61 KPBZ 021920
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN TONIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS SET OF GRIDS STORM
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH FROM THE TN VALLEY IS BEHAVING PRETTY MUCH AS
FORECAST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY AS IS WITH RIDGES EXPECTED TO
HAVE POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 50 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST PRESSURE
FALLS MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF LOW CENTER. FAIRLY STEADY RAIN FIRST HALF
OF NIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE AS LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS REGION. WHILE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING EARLY
THURSDAY STILL THINK ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS EARLY BECOMING CHANCE
LATE. CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO
FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG I-80 AND ACROSS THE RIDGES. STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND MODELS ARE TRYING TO THROW MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES FOR SATURDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN RIDGES FOR ALL SNOW AS THICKNESS WOULD SUPPORT. AS OF NOW
BEST QPF LOOKS TO STAY EAST SO NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM
MAV MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
BROAD BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROJECTED OVER CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE RAPIDLY MOVING
DISTURBANCES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BEST
OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH DUE TO THE COLD FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN OVER UPPER
OHIO VALLEY PORTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR IN RAIN THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE INCREASING
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO ABOUT A SUSTAINED 10, WITH GUSTS NEAR
20KT. WIND ALOFT WILL INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AS LOW LEVEL JET ON
THE FLANK OF THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...WILL THUS INCLUDE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS FOR ALL PORTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW DIGS NORTHEASTWARD.
POST SYSTEM COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
