FXUS61 KCLE 220830
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT
FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GOTTEN GOING ACROSS NW PA THIS
MORNING. KERI HAS BEEN BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING AND A LOWERING INVERSION TODAY. THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF TOWARD MIDDAY. ACCUMS FROM 1 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  FURTHER WEST
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL RESULT FROM SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY SO IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING MOST LOCATIONS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS WILL TOWARD KFDY AND KMNN. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THIS
AND THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES. WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION AT THE LOWER LEVELS...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DO MUCH TODAY.
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO WITH A DIURNAL RANGE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVERHEAD. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY BUT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS
AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND A DRY
SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CAUSE THE PRECIP TO DIMINISH IN THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. MORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE UP THE LAKE SO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL HAVE
TO WAIT TILL AFTER THE PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE 
COLDEST AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EXPECT TO SEE THE LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW IN THE BUFFALO AREA GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT 
AND MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME DECENT AMOUNTS BUT WANT TO SEE 
SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW QUICK THE WINDS WILL REALLY 
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS 
THERE WONT BE MUCH SNOW WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES. 

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW NOW DEVELOPING SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND WILL
PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OVERNIGHT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION WILL KICK
OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY GETTING A
DUSTING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE THE WESTERN LOCATIONS.
EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH
IFR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. 

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT TO SEE NW WINDS TODAY GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO NORTHEAST ON 
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. 
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE WEST 
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BY SOMETIME THURSDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL 
TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN 
THE WEEK. STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS 
STORM SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AND GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...MULLEN