FXUS63 KLMK 220833
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER US THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A LOW CLOUD 
DECK OVER THE NORTH PORTION OF OUR AREA.  THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN 
CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE CLEARING...LIGHT 
WINDS...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOG HAS FORMED ESPECIALLY 
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS.  WITH 
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT SOME  
FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.  AGAIN...THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL BE 
MOSTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE BLUEGRASS WHICH HAS SEEN 
THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING.  WILL GO AHEAD 
AND ISSUE A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM BUTLER COUNTY TO SHELBY 
COUNTY AND AREAS IN KENTUCKY SE OF THAT LINE.  THE ADVISORY WILL GO 
TILL 15Z.  MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION ON THE ROADWAYS THIS MORNING 
AS SLICK SPOTS AND BLACK ICE MAY BE PRESENT.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE/LL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  ANY 
FOG WILL CLEAR OFF BY MID MORNING.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE 
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE 
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
RAIN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN 
THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - MONDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING AN EWD TRACK ACRS NEW MEXICO AT THE 
START OF THIS PERIOD...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS WED NIGHT...THEN 
TURNING NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU. LOW THEN MEADERS NEWD 
FRI/FRI NIGHT/SAT ACRS THE MID/UPR MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 

AT THE SFC/LOW LEVELS: LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRENGTHENING...
TRANSPORTING MSTR NWD. DEEPENING MSTR APPEARS TO SUPPORT RAIN 
CHANCES WED AND WED NIGHT...PRIMARILY ACRS OUR NRN/WRN FA WITH 
CYCLOGENESIS WELL UNDERWAY IN THE SRN PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY 
POPS FOR THE THU/THU NIGHT PERIOD AS DEEPENING LOW PRES TRACKS NEWD 
INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLY AND OCCLUDED FRONT REACHES THE SEMO/WKY 
VCNTY BY THU EVE. AT THAT TIME...GREATEST NWD MOIST TRANSPORT SHUD 
BE ONGOING WITH A SLY 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACRS OUR FA. 
PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHUD BE LATE THU/THU NIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 
INCH AMOUNTS COMMON. BY FRI MRNG...GFS/EURO/CANADIAN ALL POSITION 
FRONT ACRS OUR CENTRAL/ERN FA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SO 
AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN FRI...WITH FALLING TEMPS...SOME FLURRIES 
SHUD MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS WEAKENING LOW 
MEANDERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND SECONDARY SURGES OF COLD AIR/TROFS 
APPROACH/MOVE THRU. 

WE COULD VERY WELL OBSERVE HI TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY EARLY IN THE 
MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS DURG THE DAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS 
THIS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT THE TERMINALS AS AN 
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HANGS OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT THE EDGE OF THIS 
CLOUD DECK TO REACH BWG AND LEX TOWARD SUNRISE...THUS HAVE THEIR LOW 
CLOUDS SCATTERING BY 9-11Z.  BECAUSE OF THESE SEMI CLEAR CONDITIONS 
(HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES)...HAVE REDUCED BWG AND 
LEX VSBYS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TOWARD SUNRISE AS BETTER RAD COOLING 
WILL HELP FOG FORMATION.

WHILE BWG AND LEX SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14 TO 
15Z...SDF WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON 
ACCORDING TO MOISTURE PROFILES.  THEY COULD GO SCT BRIEFLY 
BUT OVERALL KEPT THE BKN030 CIG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR WINDS...THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING 
HOURS...TURNING TO THE SE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY SHOULD REMAIN 
UNDER 7KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING 
     FOR KYZ027>029-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........DK/11
AVIATION..........AML