FXUS63 KJKL 261734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/
DRY SLOT WELL EAST OF PESKY UPR LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPR MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS MORNING A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED
WISCONSIN AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
LOCATED OVER NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY EASTERN KENTUCKY
IS IN A DRY SLOT WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS A LARGE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE OFF...THIS
WILL ALLOW THE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CHANGE UP AND ALLOW FOR
CLIPPERS AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCES IN THE
FORECAST. I AM EXPECTING A SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND THE SURFACE
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HAVE A
LITTLE DOUBT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH. IT MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER NOON SUNDAY AS OPPOSED TO AROUND DAWN. THIS SHOULD
BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AND THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO THE AREA AND WILL CAUSE THE
SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE BORDER COUNTIES AND AREAS THAT TYPICALLY
GET ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. 

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THERE APPEAR TO BE NO
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE MADE NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL TRANSIT OUR AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL TEND TO
KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR. HOWEVER...MODELS WANT TO PHASE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND DEVELOP A BROAD DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THAT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PROBABLY LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN...OR POSSIBLY A RAIN SNOW MIX.
BUT EVENTUALLY COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION TURNING ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION INTO JUST SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW VEERS WITH
TIME. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW...BUT IT APPEARS
THERE COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW...SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT...ON INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ENHANCEMENT AS SEVERAL DISTINCT DISTURBANCES
RACE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

EXPECT VFR ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE AREA IS UNDER THE DRY SLOT AND
SURFACE RIDGING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST MAXING OUT BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS A MID LEVEL BKN
DECK MOVES THRU WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO
BETWEEN 040-050 WITH NO RESTRICTION TO VSBY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ/ILN 
LONG TERM....RAY 
AVIATION...DUSTY