FXUS63 KFSD 112041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
240 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING 
PUSHED SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING MORE THAN 
ANTICIPATED UNDER THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE 
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.  THIS CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AS 
ELEVATION WILL PLAY SOMEWHAT OF A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES AS WINDS WILL 
INCREASE PRETTY DRAMATICALLY WITH HEIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET SWINGS 
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT...HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER 
SQUIRRELLY OVERNIGHT...FALLING AND RISING DEPENDENT ON THE WINDS. 
OVERALL HOWEVER...LOWS SHOULD DROP BACK TO NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE 
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY 
CLOUD FREE...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH/MID CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.  
/JM

LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY 
COLD TEMPS AGAIN SUN THRU WED. SHUD WARM UP INTO 20S MOST PLACES 
AHEAD OF NEXT CDFNT THAT WL SAG SWD ACRS CWA DURING AFTN AND EVE. IF 
SNOW COVER WAS NOT SO WDSPRD AND FRESH...WUD PBLY WARM INTO 30S ACRS 
CWA ON SAT.

SOME LLM WL RETURN N SAT NIGHT AND OVERRUN COLDER ARCTIC SFC AIR. 
THIS CUD BE ENUF TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVR 
FAR SERN CWA. SO WL KEEP THIS MENTIONED ACRS NW IA SAT NIGHT.

COLDER AIR WL CONT TO SPILL INTO CWA FM THE N SAT NITE...AND SUN WL 
AGAIN BE COLD WITH HIGHS GENLY IN THE TEENS WITH LOWER 20S FAR SE. 
IF COLD SURGE IS A LTL STRONGER THAN PROGGED THEN MAY HAVE A HARD 
TIME HITTING 10 ABOVE ACRS THE N WITH TEENS S.

DECENT S/W WL PUSH EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS SUN NITE WITH SOME DECENT 
MID LEVEL WAA AND ISEN LIFT ACRS NRN CWA. WUD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 
LIGHT SNOW ACRS CWA SUN NITE WITH BEST CHC N. WUD NOT BE SUPRISED TO 
SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES OF FLUFF ACRS THE FAR N AS SYS WL BE EFFICIENT AT 
SQUEEZING OUT SNOW. DID UP POPS ACRS NRN CWA SUN NITE TO LIKELY WITH 
CHC ACRS THE S. 

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW THIS S/W ALONG WITH GUSTY N 
WINDS. SO CUD SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACRS CWA ON MON ALONG WITH COLD 
WIND CHILLS. 

SHUD CLEAR OUT MON NITE AND WITH ARCTIC HIGH SETTLING OVR THE WRN 
DAKOTAS BY TUES MORN...WL PBLY ONCE AGAIN SEE LOWS NEAR 10 BELOW IN 
MANY LOCATIONS. 

TUES WL REMAIN COLD WITH SOME WEAK WAA WARMING TEMPS UP A BIT ON WED 
AND WARMER FOR THU AND FRI AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A LTL MORE ZONAL. 
FOR NOW WL LEAVE TUES THRU FRI DRY ALTHOUGH WEAK S/W WED NITE OR THU 
CUD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES. 

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z ON SATURDAY. MODELS 
STILL HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR CIGS GENERALLY EAST OF 
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$