FXUS65 KABQ 221036
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 AM MST TUE DEC 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO BEGINNING TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN
COLORADO. IN FACT...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LARGELY DUE
OROGRAPHICS. THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES WILL BE FAVORED FOR HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NM TONIGHT. AS IT
DOES SO...OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN...AND MUCH OF
THE SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT WILL RELY ON MORE ON DYNAMICS...MAINLY
FRONTOGENESIS. THEREFORE...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE LOW
END OF WARNING CRITERIA. FOR THE SAME REASONS...SNOW SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUICK HITTING ACROSS THE WEST AND THINK AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY
BE ADVISORY...AND PERHAPS EVEN HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL PLATEAU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS COULD
RECEIVE WARNING AMOUNTS TONIGHT...THANKS TO THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE
MID LEVEL JET. SNOW WILL START A BIT LATER ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL START ALL OF THESE HIGHLIGHTS
AT 18Z AND RUN THRU 00Z THURS. AS STATED YESTERDAY...LIFTED INDICES
WILL FALL BETWEEN 0 AND -2 THIS EVENING...THEREFORE ISOLATED THUNDER
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS
SINCE COVERAGE AND IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL.
HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SANGRES AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS TO THE WEST WHERE SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN THIS
EVENING. HIGH END ADVISORY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES.
BEFORE THE EVENT IS SAID AND DONE...THE NORTHEAST WILL GET INTO THE
ACTION WEDNESDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE PLAINS.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ONLY SEE
ADVISORY AMOUNTS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
EXITED THE STATE...BUT A SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL
CEASE BY FRIDAY...AND GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES...LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL LARGELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BOTH ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO....TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH 22/1400 UTC BEFORE TOP DOWN MOISTENING ACCELERATES AND
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TODAY...SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
WHERE IFR AND SPOTTY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE IN VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
BETWEEN 23/0000 UTC AND 23/0060 UTC TONIGHT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO IFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT BASIN LATE TODAY THEN TURN EAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST. FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND COLD WITH WELL BELOW
TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER NEW MEXICO.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL WRAP SOUTH OF THE STORM...HUGGING THE MEXICAN
BORDER...LEAVING ONLY SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. RISING DEWPOINTS AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN RH
VALUES ON THE INCREASE. A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...PARTICULARLY
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASED GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY TWO
COLD FRONTS THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A
PACIFIC SEGMENT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A BACK DOOR SEGMENT
SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. BY FAR THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT. A PACIFIC STORM COULD THEN IMPACT NEW
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 39 26 38 20 / 60 80 40 10
DULCE........................... 37 20 34 11 / 80 80 60 30
CUBA............................ 41 21 33 14 / 50 70 50 20
GALLUP.......................... 42 23 35 11 / 50 80 40 10
EL MORRO........................ 40 19 33 12 / 40 90 40 10
GRANTS.......................... 44 22 35 13 / 30 80 40 10
QUEMADO......................... 46 21 35 13 / 40 80 30 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 32 46 21 / 20 90 20 0
CHAMA........................... 38 17 34 9 / 80 80 60 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 22 35 14 / 40 70 50 20
PECOS........................... 44 22 36 15 / 20 60 50 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 17 33 10 / 30 60 50 30
RED RIVER....................... 36 16 28 9 / 40 80 60 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 16 29 11 / 30 70 60 30
TAOS............................ 40 20 34 14 / 30 60 50 30
ESPANOLA........................ 47 24 42 20 / 30 60 50 20
SANTA FE........................ 43 22 34 18 / 30 60 50 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 26 36 20 / 20 60 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 29 39 24 / 20 60 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 31 41 26 / 20 60 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 29 42 23 / 20 60 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 30 41 25 / 20 60 40 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 27 45 21 / 20 60 40 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 29 40 25 / 20 60 40 10
SOCORRO......................... 55 32 48 24 / 20 60 30 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 25 36 18 / 20 70 50 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 24 37 19 / 10 60 50 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 24 33 17 / 10 50 50 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 29 37 21 / 10 50 40 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 30 42 24 / 5 40 30 5
RUIDOSO......................... 49 30 38 21 / 5 50 30 10
CAPULIN......................... 45 20 31 11 / 5 60 60 40
RATON........................... 48 24 34 15 / 10 50 60 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 24 34 15 / 10 40 50 30
CLAYTON......................... 51 23 31 19 / 0 40 60 30
ROY............................. 48 26 35 19 / 5 30 60 30
CONCHAS......................... 54 30 41 23 / 5 30 50 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 31 43 22 / 5 30 50 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 28 40 20 / 0 20 50 30
CLOVIS.......................... 57 30 47 23 / 0 20 40 30
PORTALES........................ 58 30 48 22 / 0 20 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 31 46 23 / 5 20 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 60 36 54 27 / 0 20 30 10
PICACHO......................... 59 33 49 25 / 5 30 30 10
ELK............................. 55 31 45 22 / 5 30 30 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-504-508-510-511.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-502-505>507-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>517.
&&
$$
34/40
