FXUS64 KSHV 010346 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW QUICK CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN NM AND
AZ. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST TOWARD
THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE NORTH BACK INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA SEEING RATHER CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. HAVE ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY AROUND THE RUSTON AREA
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW THEIR FORECASTED LOWS. HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY
BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
BE MORE STEADY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION.
THE 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO SHOW RATHER DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION. SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TO MOISTEN UP BEFORE
SEEING RAIN DEVELOP. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND SLOWED THE RETURN OF RAIN
A BIT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CWFA FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE IS
ABLE TO SLOWLY RETURN AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST
TOWARD THE FOUR STATE REGION. IT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWFA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY MOVING
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES SPINNING ACROSS N MEXICO THIS
EVENING...AND SHOULD HEAD INTO TX TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS PLENTY OF ENERGY STARTING TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AT MID-EVENING...WITH JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINALS
SEEING SOME MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM S TO N ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. EVEN SO...FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL 01/1200 UTC OR SO. THE BIG
CHANGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THEREAFTER. CIGS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD
INITIALLY DROP AT KFLK...THEN SPREAD N/E THROUGH THE MORNING. -RA
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 01/1200 UTC OVER S/W TERMINALS AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS...AND POSSIBLY REACH IH-20 AIPORTS TOWARD 01/1800
UTC. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...I WILL USE VCSH WORDING FOR NOW AND LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS FINE TUNE THE FORECAST. /D. BUTTS/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 40 53 47 52 33 / 0 50 80 60 10
MLU 38 58 49 55 34 / 0 40 80 80 20
DEQ 32 56 43 48 29 / 0 30 70 80 10
TXK 35 56 46 51 32 / 0 30 80 80 10
ELD 34 58 47 52 31 / 0 30 80 80 20
TYR 39 50 46 51 33 / 10 60 80 40 10
GGG 39 51 46 51 33 / 0 60 80 60 10
LFK 45 50 47 53 35 / 10 60 80 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
22/21
