FXUS61 KBGM 280928
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...TO BRING A SHORT
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WINDY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AS DEEP STACKED LOW OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE MOVES FURTHER TO THE NE. HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGED
FROM WRN ONTARIO S TO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30S
WITH SOME 40S MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST. ACROSS THE FAR EAST WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY. JUST MAKING CRITERIA. AS
EMPHASIZED IN NPW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES NE AND THE HIGH MOVES EAST BUILDING INTO PA.
AS FOR PRECIP MOST OF IT HAS LONG SINCE MOVED EAST WITH THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WITH ALIGNED LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND MARGINAL
LAKE 850 TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SOME SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH TODAY
WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. THIS AFTN THE FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO WNW
SHIFTING THE SHOWER AREA TO THE NE CWA BY EVE. A DEEP ENOUGH ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER AT AND ABOVE THE SFC STILL MEANS MIXED PRECIP. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
GRASS.
WITH CLOUDS AND WIND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY.
INCREASING SUN THIS AFTN MAINLY IN THE SW HALF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WAA AND WIND SHIFT TO 260 AT 850MB BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UL HEIGHTS ALSO RISE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. SUNDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
MAX TEMPS WITH MORE SUN AND A SW WIND.
THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SE CANADA WHILE A STRONG TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
STRONG CAA WILL QUICKLY START THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. 850 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -10C WHICH IS MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WHICH IS COLDER THAN CURRENT SHOT. THIS LAKE EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY SNOW MON NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MED RANGE FCST THIS MORNING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP CONSENSUS DURING THE WEDS- FRI TIME PERIOD AT
BAY. BASE FCST WILL CONTINUE WITH 27/18Z HPC GUIDANCE PROGS. AFTER
WANING LAKE EFFECT ON TUESDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING EAST FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC
STATES...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE
REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH 27/12Z RUN...AND
BRINGS SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS SIMILAR TO 18Z RUN WITH THE LOW
SWEEPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATEST RUN IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN MOST SOLUTIONS. THE GFS DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING
FURTHER WWD FROM 12Z YESTERDAY AND POSSIBLY STARTING TO COME IN
LINE WITH ECMWF IDEAS. GLOBAL CANADIAN GEM IS SOLIDLY IN THE EC
CAMP. THE CURRENT HPC GUIDANCE THAT LEANED WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLES
APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A COMPROMISE OF BETWEEN THE EC/GFS. THE
ONLY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE I'LL MAKE THIS MORNING WILL BE TO
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA LATER
WEDS AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE THE ARRIVAL
OF WAA PRECIP SHIELD AHEAD OF THE SFC LOWS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE 00Z
THURS. OTHERWISE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF A MORE
INLAND...AND THUS WARMER/MARGINAL SNOW TRACK DRIVEN ONLY BY
DIURNAL TEMP TENDENCIES AND ELEVATION FOR POTENTIAL OF ACCUM
SNOWS. ENHANCED THE POP GRIDS TO THE E/SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY AS THERMAL...MOISTURE AND WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITHIN COLD AND BLUSTERY NW FLOW
RISING INTO THE TERRAIN ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NORTHEAST PA
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. LOCALIZED IFR WILL BE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
ELEVATED STATIONS OF KBGM AND KITH THROUGH ABOUT 12Z-15Z...AND MAY
OCNL DEVELOP AT KRME DUE TO -SHSNRA. SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO VFR WITH LOW AND MID LVL LAYERED CIGS.
NW WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH 18Z WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS COMMON.
WINDS WILL GRDLY SUBSIDE TO GUSTS 20 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH W-NW SUSTAINED WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...BECOMING VFR.
SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT TO TUE NGT...MVFR/VFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATE SATURDAY TO THE STATS PUT OUT ON TUESDAY.
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD BE BROKEN TODAY FOR SYRACUSE. THE SYRACUSE AREA HAS
NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY
24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WHICH
SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE
USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT.
THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 1946 276 DAYS FEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
1) 2009 276 DAYS FEB 25TH TO NOV 27TH SO FAR
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
CLIMATE...TAC/EH
