FXUS64 KHGX 110521
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1121 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.AVIATION...
STILL ANTICIPATE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MVFR LEVELS
AROUND MIDDAY...IFR LEVELS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND IFR/LIFR
LEVELS AND VISIBILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF RA/SHRA
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 8 TO 12
KNOTS INLAND AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...THEN SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
UPDATE...
DECREASING SOUTHWESTERN PRESSURES WITH THICKENING...LOWERING CLOUD
DECKS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MORE MOIST MID-LEVEL SW WINDS RIDING
UP AND OVER DRY AND COOLER SURFACE DOME THE IMPETUS TO WIDESPREAD
(SH)RA BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S LOOK BEST WITH A NE BREEZE AND BKN-OVC DAWN SKY. ANOTHER
COOL DAY AS INTERIOR PM TEMPS STRUGGLE TO MEET THE LOWER 50S ONCE
AGAIN. DEVELOPING MID- LOW LEVEL WESTERN GULF TROF/WEAK CLOSED-
OFF LOW TRAVELING NEAR- PARALLEL TO COASTLINE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGHEST QPF OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN FA...OR WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEST ENHANCED THROUGH 11/06Z. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. LOWER CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL
IN LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT COOLING AND KEEP OUR
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
COASTAL LOW STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE AREA. MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER IN
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AND MOVING IT TOWARDS THE AREA...SUGGESTING
A SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION TIMING TO MORE OF A FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENT. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR FRIDAY
AND AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT FEEL BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL LIE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. HAVE SLOWED
CLEARING OUT OF POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOWER PROPAGATION OF THE SFC LOW. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
NEXT COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN ACROSS THE ARE FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK. 38
MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THE 00-20 NM WATERS AND
SCEC FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. WILL EXTEND SCA FOR THE
20-60 NM WATERS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL PEAK 5-7 FT NEARSHORE...7-10 FT
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT BY LATE
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAKER SFC LOW AND A MORE NORTHEAST
COMPONENT TO THE WIND MEANS TIDES WILL NOT BE AS ELEVATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS PREVIOUS ONES. DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT. FINALLY A PERIOD OF FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 35 48 42 54 48 / 10 50 70 40 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 38 51 44 56 49 / 20 70 70 40 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 45 55 53 59 57 / 30 70 70 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...42
