FXUS63 KPAH 281902
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
102 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RETURN OF POPS
TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW. NRN STREAM JET STREAK WILL DRIVE COLD
FRONT TO NR OH RIVER BY AROUND 00Z MON...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY SUNDAY ESP PM
HOURS. FRONT IS THRU ALL BUT PENNYRILE OF WKY BY 06Z REGARDLESS
OF MODEL OF CHOICE...SO PCPN SHUTS DOWN RAPIDLY AFT MIDNIGHT. MAIN
ADJUSTMENT TO GOING POP AS A RESULT WAS ELIMINATION OF LINGERING
EARLY MON AM POP. CLOUDS MIGHT HOLD THEIR CLEARIING TIL UPPER TROF
PASSAGE MON PM/EVENING.

AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE TUESDAY...POPS RETURN IN EARNEST WED-WED
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FAVORED MODEL AND REMAINS SO
APPARENTLY W/THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH MEANS A SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS
WKY AND AN UPPER LOW TRACK SW OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK BY ABOUT
100 MILES. THE 12Z GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST WITH THE TRACK BUT
NUDGING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
CONCERN WITH THIS IS WHETHER OR NOT THE LOWER TROP WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOMETHING OTHER THAN LIQUID PTYPE. EARLY WED AM
MAY ACTUALLY BE THE BEST BET...BUT IT APPEARS EVEN THE QUICKER NAM
KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN JUST SOUTH OF THE FA THRU 12Z WED. THAT
MEANS INCOMING WED PCPN WILL BE LIQUID AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM FROM
THE M30S TO M40S BY MIDDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHC WILL BE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LIFTING SYSTEM WED NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE TIMING POSES
A DILEMMA. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS EVEN W/THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION...THE PCPN IS OVER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NE... PROBABLY BY
MIDNIGHT...HENCE THE TEMP FALL SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PCPN COMES IN
JUST AS THE MOISTURE FIELD DEPARTS. NOT TO SAY A SLOWING
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM EVOLUTION WONT END UP SUPPORTING SOME
MENTION...JUST FOR NOW/THIS PACKAGE WE'LL FOLLOW THE INHERITED
SCHEME OF ENDING MOST/IF NOT ALL POPS BY MIDNIGHT AND NO MENTION
OF FREEZING/FROZEN YET.

THE END OF THE WEEK/INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. MADE MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST MOS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL CARRY VFR CIGS AND VSBY UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z SUNDAY AM. WILL 
FIRST INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KCGI AROUND 15Z AND SPREAD NORTHEAST 
REACHING KEVV AND KOWB BY EARLY AFTN. WILL LIKELY START TO INTRODUCE 
POPS IN NEXT ISSUANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$