FXUS62 KCAE 101446
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
946 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 9 AM...THE COLD FRONT WAS OFF THE COAST WITH LINGER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OK/AR TO
BUILD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BAND OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SRN SAVANNAH RIVER AREA WILL BE MOVE OUT
BY MIDDAY. EXPECTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WEST WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST. DOWN SLOPE FLOW TO DRY OUT AIR MASS. HAVE
LOWER DEWPOINTS A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE MAINLY THIN TONIGHT SO THERE SHOULD
BE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE SOUTH PART FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK LIFT AND INITIAL DRYNESS SUPPORT THE MOS POPS OF LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH PART FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER.
PLAN TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY...BUT STILL WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SLEET...BUT THE
CHANCE APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE DELAYED TIMING. LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING NEAR THE COAST SUPPORTS A CONTINUED RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS BRIEF DRYING FOR MONDAY...BUT A RETURN TO HIGH
MOISTURE TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...10
