FXUS62 KMFL 100527
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1227 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TOOK OUT MENTION OF FOG IN THE KAPF AND KPBI AS IT APPEARS
TOO MUCH MIXING COULD BE DEVELOPING FOR FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR.
THERE COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS AND COULD HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS BUT
NOT WORTH MENTIONING AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. LOW STRATUS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT
TIMING IS SUCH THAT DID NOT MENTION ANY CIGS AT THIS TIME AS IT
WOULD LIKELY BE BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING BEFORE OCCURRING.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009/
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SEA FOG ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...NORTH FROM OUR
CWA...THAT COULD EXPAND SOUTH AND POSSIBLY PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG AREA TO INCLUDE THE GULF
WATERS AND THE WESTERN COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.
ALSO...ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY...WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY
AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. NOT CONFIDENT ATTM IF DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET BUT WILL AMEND FCST IF NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009/
AVIATION...
LIGHT GENERAL SW FLOW TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHALLENGE IS FOG
FCST. THINK WIND DIRECTION OF 190/200 DEG DOES NOT QUITE FAVOR FOG
GETTING INTO BROWARD/DADE TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT THIS DIRECTION
COULD EASILY ADVECT FOG FROM THE INTERIOR INTO KPBI LATER. ALSO
THINK SEA FOG OVER W CNTRL FL COAST MAY EXPAND S OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT KAPF. WINDS/MIXING OUT OF THE SW SHOULD INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH A FEW SHRA PSBLY NEARING TERMINALS ALONG/N OF AN
ALLIGATOR ALLEY LINE BY MID AFTERNOON.
/STRASSBERG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009/
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...
DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA'S WEATHER RESEMBLES SEPTEMBER OR EARLY OCTOBER MORE
THAN DECEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS REMAINS STUBBORN AND KEEPING OUR REGION IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE RECORD HIGH HAS
ALREADY BEEN TIED AT MIAMI TODAY (SEE MORE IN CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW). BECAUSE OF THE HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AND COVER MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EAST
COAST METRO AREAS MAY ESCAPE THE FOG, BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
SUBURBS.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE DOWN THE
PENINSULA THURSDAY, REACHING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND SUNSET. DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE IS LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND WITH VIRTUALLY
NO SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF, EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY AND VERY
WARM DAY. IN FACT, LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THURSDAY THAN TODAY, WHICH TRANSLATES TO TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND METRO EAST COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER
WESTERN AREAS AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DUE TO FLOW OFF THE GULF
AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT BEING
ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT'S FORECAST READINGS. THE
FRONT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW IN NATURE DUE TO MID/UPPER HIGH
REMAINING IN PLACE SE OF AREA, THEREFORE THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BEGIN TO "BACK UP" OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINING ON TOP OF THE SHALLOW NE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
CAUSE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DID NOT GO AS HIGH WITH THE POPS AS THE MAV/GFS, BUT DID
INCREASE POPS OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST AS PATTERN DEFINITELY
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST POPS UPWARDS
FOR THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED.
FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF AREA BY SUNDAY, AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTLING BACK IN, TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW A
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE STATE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS NEXT FRONT MIGHT EXTEND.
MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
INCREASING WIND AND SEAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS N
TO NE WINDS KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL
INCREASE TO 4-6 FEET FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY FRIDAY, THEN BE AROUND
4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE GULF WATERS, SEAS SHOULD MAX
OUT AT 4 FEET ON FRIDAY BEFORE SETTLING BACK INTO THE 1-3 FT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY CONCERN IS DENSE FOG TONIGHT, OTHERWISE RELATIVELY HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE...
THREE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS WERE EITHER TIED OR BROKEN THIS
MORNING (MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE AND NAPLES), AND THE RECORD HIGH
FOR TODAY HAS BEEN TIED SO FAR AT MIAMI. THURSDAY'S HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONE OR TWO DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, THREATENING
THE DAILY RECORDS AT EAST COAST SITES BELOW:
CITIES THURSDAY THURSDAY
FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIAMI8886 - 1896
FORT LAUDERDALE8786 - 1997
WEST PALM BEACH8786 - 1997
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 65 78 69 / 30 30 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 68 79 72 / 20 20 30 40
MIAMI 88 67 80 72 / 20 20 30 40
NAPLES 84 63 79 66 / 20 20 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
