FXUS62 KMFL 010141
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
841 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER FORECAST
DETAILS. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL S. FL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE AT 3 KNOTS OR LESS
LATER IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ALL TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO HAVE 8 KNOTS OR LESS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009/
DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND WEST INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY AND THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MID LEVEL LOW STILL OVER WEST TEXAS
TUESDAY WILL DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND MOVE IT TO
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HAS BEEN THE CONSISTENT
SCENARIO WITH THE GFS40 FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THEN THE 12Z GFS40
SHOWS THE LONG WAVE NOW FURTHER WEST AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE
AREA AND FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. TAFB AND KKEY HAVE
DISCOUNTED THE GFS40 ALONG WITH HPC. WE ARE TRENDING MORE WITH THE
00Z GFS40 AND THE ECMWF WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AND
A DRYING AND COOLING TREND SETTING UP. BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE,
HAVE STAYED WITH MINIMAL POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID NOT CHANGE
THE EXTENDED TEMPS WITH GO ALONG WITH THE 00Z MEX GUIDANCE AND
DON'T MATCH WELL WITH THE 12Z MEX GUIDANCE. BUT WENT CLOSE TO THE
MAVMOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THE FUTURE
GFS40 RUNS PAN OUT AND IF THEY AGREE AGAIN WITH THE ECMWF.
AS FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT TO A FEW STRONG OVER NORTH
SECTIONS AND HAVE AMENDED THE HWO ACCORDINGLY. THE DYNAMICS AND
LIFT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAT EARLIER DEPICTED ON THE MODELS.
MARINE...NE-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING SPEEDS TO
SCEC LEVELS. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME AOB 20 KTS WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO 8 FT FOR A SCA LIKELY THEN. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AT SCEC LEVEL SPEEDS AND SEAS
TO 6 OR 7 FEET OR LESS. BY SATURDAY, WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AT 15
TO 20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS
TO 7 FT OUTER PARTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE AS THE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 62 80 72 85 / - 10 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 81 74 85 / - 10 10 40
MIAMI 67 81 74 85 / - 10 10 40
NAPLES 63 83 69 83 / - 10 10 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
