FXUS62 KTBW 071415
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009

.UPDATE...
VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE STATE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOOKING AT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SOME DRIER AIR IS POISED TO MOVE IN OVER THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SHOULD CUT MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF BY MIDDAY
OR SO. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW ABOUT 5KFT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO GET UP INTO THE UPPER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER
SOUTHERN LOCALS EVEN WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS...AND NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BASES REMAINING AROUND 4000-5000 FEET AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. CIGS SHOULD LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE...THEN
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW INTO MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MAY APPROACH EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  63  80  68 /  10  10  10  10 
FMY  81  65  83  68 /  10  10  10  10 
GIF  79  62  82  68 /  10  10  10  10 
SRQ  79  61  83  67 /  10  10  10  10 
BKV  77  59  82  64 /  10  10  20  10 
SPG  76  64  80  68 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...23/MCNATT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES