FXUS62 KCAE 100802
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
302 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. 
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE WITH H85 COLD ADVECTION. 
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RUC INDICATES THIS
CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
INDICATES CONTINUED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY IN THE FLAT FLOW. EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS WILL BE MAINLY THIN.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT 
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE MAINLY THIN TONIGHT SO THERE SHOULD 
BE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS 
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE 
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 
MODELS SHOW JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE SOUTH PART FRIDAY NIGHT. 
THE WEAK LIFT AND INITIAL DRYNESS SUPPORT THE MOS POPS OF LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH PART FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST 
AREA SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER. 
PLAN TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY...BUT STILL WILL HAVE CHANCE 
POPS IN THE NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE 
AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SLEET...BUT THE 
CHANCE APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE DELAYED TIMING. LOW PRESSURE 
REMAINING NEAR THE COAST SUPPORTS A CONTINUED RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY. 
THE GFS SHOWS BRIEF DRYING FOR MONDAY...BUT A RETURN TO HIGH
MOISTURE TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS 
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AT CAE STILL 
INDICATING CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIND SHEAR IN
THE SHORT TERM. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE
WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS SATURDAY 
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...BC